Closing spread
ATL -7.5
Total
41
Model margin
+2.1est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.124EPA / play-0.020
- 40.1%Success rate40.6%
- -0.093EPA / dropback-0.017
- -0.171EPA / rush-0.024
- 5.7%Explosive rate9.3%
- 35.3%Third-down rate43.8%
- 39.0%Red-zone TD rate51.9%
- 1.30Points / drive1.65
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.4%
- +0.002EPA / play allowed-0.022
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 40 points. ATL are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NYJ–ATL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | Q1 15:00 | 11 | 48 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 9:46 | 2 | 9 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q1 9:16 | 6 | 25 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| NYJ | Q1 5:35 | 5 | 8 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| ATL | Q1 2:47 | 4 | 21 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| NYJ | Q1 0:42 | 4 | 16 | Punt | 0–10 |
| ATL | Q2 14:16 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 0–16 |
| NYJ | Q2 12:33 | 1 | -13 | Opp touchdown | 0–17 |
| NYJ | Q2 12:23 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–17 |
| ATL | Q2 10:47 | 7 | 72 | Field goal | 0–20 |
| NYJ | Q2 6:58 | 8 | 73 | Touchdown | 7–20 |
| ATL | Q2 2:49 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 7–20 |
| NYJ | Q2 1:46 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–20 |
| ATL | Q2 0:45 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 7–20 |
| NYJ | Q2 0:29 | 1 | 13 | End of half | 7–20 |
| NYJ | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 6 | Punt | 7–20 |
| ATL | Q3 12:53 | 13 | 48 | Touchdown | 7–27 |
| NYJ | Q3 6:35 | 5 | 7 | Turnover | 7–27 |
| ATL | Q3 4:12 | 6 | 37 | Punt | 7–27 |
| NYJ | Q3 1:03 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–27 |
| ATL | Q3 0:04 | 3 | 3 | Turnover | 7–27 |
| NYJ | Q4 14:15 | 7 | 30 | Touchdown | 14–27 |
| ATL | Q4 11:52 | 4 | 39 | Turnover | 14–27 |
| NYJ | Q4 10:13 | 16 | 62 | Turnover on downs | 14–27 |
| ATL | Q4 3:36 | 3 | 14 | End of half | 14–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinny Testaverde | 11/18 | 140 | 0 | 1 |
| Brooks Bollinger | 12/20 | 94 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 14 | 28 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Brooks Bollinger | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 1 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 11/26 | 116 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 24 | 155 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Justin Griffith | 5 | 32 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 9 | 18 | 2.0 | 2 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.6%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.62
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.11
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.07