Closing spread
ATL -7.5
Total
41
Model margin
+2.1est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.124EPA / play-0.020
- 40.1%Success rate40.6%
- -0.093EPA / dropback-0.017
- -0.171EPA / rush-0.024
- 5.7%Explosive rate9.3%
- 35.3%Third-down rate43.8%
- 39.0%Red-zone TD rate51.9%
- 1.30Points / drive1.65
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.4%
- +0.002EPA / play allowed-0.022
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 40 points. ATL are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinny Testaverde | 11/18 | 140 | 0 | 1 |
| Brooks Bollinger | 12/20 | 94 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 14 | 28 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Brooks Bollinger | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 1 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 11/26 | 116 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 24 | 155 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Justin Griffith | 5 | 32 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 9 | 18 | 2.0 | 2 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.6%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.62
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.11
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.07