2009 · Week 15

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

10·7

Jets

New York

QB Mark Sanchez

Giants Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 29°F · wind 18mph

Closing spread

NYJ -5.5

Total

36.5

Model margin

+3.8est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapJets
  • +0.041EPA / play-0.060
  • 43.4%Success rate39.7%
  • +0.093EPA / dropback-0.151
  • -0.036EPA / rush+0.011
  • 8.0%Explosive rate10.1%
  • -1.75CPOE-5.62
  • 42.8%Third-down rate37.4%
  • 59.8%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
  • 1.97Points / drive1.61
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 40 points. NYJ are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W13ATL @ NYJ24–27NYJ
2023 · W13ATL @ NYJ13–8ATL
2021 · W5NYJ @ ATL20–27ATL
2017 · W8ATL @ NYJ25–20ATL
2013 · W5NYJ @ ATL30–28NYJ
2005 · W7NYJ @ ATL14–27ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–NYJ
ATLQ1 15:00631Punt0–0
NYJQ1 12:073-1Turnover0–0
ATLQ1 11:18934Field goal3–0
NYJQ1 6:3634Punt3–0
ATLQ1 4:4436Punt3–6
NYJQ1 2:57165Touchdown3–7
ATLQ1 2:4835Punt3–7
NYJQ1 1:0136Punt3–7
ATLQ2 14:4934Punt3–7
NYJQ2 13:491356Turnover on downs3–7
ATLQ2 6:3630Punt3–7
NYJQ2 6:0510Turnover3–7
ATLQ2 5:58618Punt3–7
NYJQ2 3:101165Missed field goal3–7
NYJQ3 15:001037Punt3–7
ATLQ3 9:0639Punt3–7
NYJQ3 6:54625Punt3–7
ATLQ3 4:10515Punt3–7
NYJQ3 1:2432Punt3–7
ATLQ3 0:261060Missed field goal3–7
NYJQ4 10:10943Missed field goal3–7
ATLQ4 4:271158Touchdown10–7
NYJQ4 1:38312Turnover10–7
ATLQ4 1:0500End of half10–7

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan16/3415210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerious Norwood9222.40
Michael Turner177.00
Matt Ryan2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jerious Norwood22470
Roddy White410330
Tony Gonzalez310321
Michael Jenkins13200
Marty Booker1280

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Sanchez18/3222613

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Thomas Jones19522.70
Shonn Greene8303.80
Brad Smith188.00
Mark Sanchez372.30
Danny Woodhead122.00
Kellen Clemens100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Braylon Edwards571051
Jerricho Cotchery67490
Dustin Keller37330
Danny Woodhead25210
Brad Smith22180
Thomas Jones0100
Shonn Greene0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

3.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.2%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.29
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.77