Closing spread
NYJ -5.5
Total
36.5
Model margin
+3.8est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.041EPA / play-0.060
- 43.4%Success rate39.7%
- +0.093EPA / dropback-0.151
- -0.036EPA / rush+0.011
- 8.0%Explosive rate10.1%
- -1.75CPOE-5.62
- 42.8%Third-down rate37.4%
- 59.8%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
- 1.97Points / drive1.61
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 40 points. NYJ are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 16/34 | 152 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerious Norwood | 9 | 22 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Michael Turner | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerious Norwood | 2 | 2 | 47 | 0 |
| Roddy White | 4 | 10 | 33 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 3 | 10 | 32 | 1 |
| Michael Jenkins | 1 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Marty Booker | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 18/32 | 226 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 19 | 52 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 8 | 30 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Mark Sanchez | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Kellen Clemens | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braylon Edwards | 5 | 7 | 105 | 1 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 6 | 7 | 49 | 0 |
| Dustin Keller | 3 | 7 | 33 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 2 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
3.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.2%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.29
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.77