Closing spread
ATL -6.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
-1.2est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.047EPA / play-0.073
- 45.0%Success rate38.5%
- +0.185EPA / dropback-0.000
- -0.152EPA / rush-0.181
- 9.7%Explosive rate8.7%
- +2.96CPOE+0.98
- 44.1%Third-down rate36.0%
- 57.2%Red-zone TD rate57.7%
- 2.02Points / drive1.51
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 40 points. NYJ are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 18/29 | 254 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tevin Coleman | 14 | 82 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 12 | 41 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 3 | 6 | 74 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 6 | 7 | 74 | 1 |
| Austin Hooper | 4 | 6 | 47 | 1 |
| Tevin Coleman | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Levine Toilolo | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 1 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 26/33 | 257 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bilal Powell | 14 | 33 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Elijah McGuire | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Josh McCown | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robbie Chosen | 6 | 6 | 104 | 1 |
| Matt Forte | 6 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Austin Seferian-Jenkins | 5 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Eric Tomlinson | 1 | 1 | 20 | 1 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 2 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
3.02%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.8%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.96
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.22