2017 · Week 8

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

25·20

Jets

New York

QB Josh McCown

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 63°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

ATL -6.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

-1.2est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapJets
  • +0.047EPA / play-0.073
  • 45.0%Success rate38.5%
  • +0.185EPA / dropback-0.000
  • -0.152EPA / rush-0.181
  • 9.7%Explosive rate8.7%
  • +2.96CPOE+0.98
  • 44.1%Third-down rate36.0%
  • 57.2%Red-zone TD rate57.7%
  • 2.02Points / drive1.51
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 40 points. NYJ are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W13ATL @ NYJ24–27NYJ
2023 · W13ATL @ NYJ13–8ATL
2021 · W5NYJ @ ATL20–27ATL
2013 · W5NYJ @ ATL30–28NYJ
2009 · W15ATL @ NYJ10–7ATL
2005 · W7NYJ @ ATL14–27ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:00955Touchdown0–7
ATLQ1 10:3345Turnover0–7
NYJQ1 9:4236Missed field goal0–7
ATLQ1 8:16764Touchdown7–7
NYJQ1 5:03620Punt7–7
ATLQ1 1:37312Turnover7–7
NYJQ1 0:1345Field goal7–10
ATLQ2 14:031170Field goal10–10
NYJQ2 8:0639Punt10–10
ATLQ2 6:0033Punt10–10
NYJQ2 5:03543Touchdown10–17
ATLQ2 2:261038Field goal13–17
ATLQ3 15:0039Punt13–17
NYJQ3 12:4639Punt13–17
ATLQ3 10:3831Punt13–17
NYJQ3 9:1231Punt13–17
ATLQ3 7:16461Field goal16–17
NYJQ3 5:12947Missed field goal16–17
ATLQ4 14:17465Touchdown22–17
NYJQ4 12:22637Field goal22–20
ATLQ4 8:42427Punt22–20
ATLQ4 6:4232Field goal25–20
NYJQ4 5:19413Punt25–20
ATLQ4 3:36629Punt25–20
NYJQ4 1:07534End of half25–20

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan18/2925420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tevin Coleman14825.90
Devonta Freeman12413.40
Matt Ryan6172.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones36740
Mohamed Sanu67741
Austin Hooper46471
Tevin Coleman11220
Levine Toilolo23200
Devonta Freeman13200
Taylor Gabriel11-30

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh McCown26/3325720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bilal Powell14332.40
Matt Forte471.80
Elijah McGuire122.00
Robbie Chosen111.00
Josh McCown100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Robbie Chosen661041
Matt Forte67450
Bilal Powell33280
Austin Seferian-Jenkins55280
Eric Tomlinson11201
Jermaine Kearse25140
Jeremy Kerley1370

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -6.52.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

3.02%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.8%

Expected total

45.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.96
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.22