Closing spread
ATL -10
Total
45
Model margin
+2.0est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.105EPA / play+0.007
- 37.6%Success rate44.7%
- -0.105EPA / dropback+0.068
- -0.104EPA / rush-0.137
- 8.3%Explosive rate6.3%
- -4.00CPOE+2.86
- 38.8%Third-down rate42.4%
- 46.5%Red-zone TD rate61.1%
- 1.25Points / drive1.70
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 40 points. ATL are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 16/20 | 199 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bilal Powell | 12 | 38 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Mike Goodson | 3 | 32 | 10.7 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Cumberland | 3 | 4 | 79 | 1 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 5 | 6 | 68 | 1 |
| Stephen Hill | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Mike Goodson | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| David Nelson | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Clyde Gates | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Kellen Winslow | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 36/45 | 319 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 14 | 43 | 3.1 | 2 |
| Antone Smith | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 8 | 11 | 99 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 10 | 14 | 97 | 0 |
| Roddy White | 4 | 4 | 45 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 4 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Levine Toilolo | 2 | 2 | 15 | 1 |
| Patrick DiMarco | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Kevin Cone | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Harry Douglas | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.5%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.47
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.02