2013 · Week 5

Final

Jets

New York

QB Geno Smith

30·28

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -10

Total

45

Model margin

+2.0est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

3.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapFalcons
  • -0.105EPA / play+0.007
  • 37.6%Success rate44.7%
  • -0.105EPA / dropback+0.068
  • -0.104EPA / rush-0.137
  • 8.3%Explosive rate6.3%
  • -4.00CPOE+2.86
  • 38.8%Third-down rate42.4%
  • 46.5%Red-zone TD rate61.1%
  • 1.25Points / drive1.70
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 40 points. ATL are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W13ATL @ NYJ24–27NYJ
2023 · W13ATL @ NYJ13–8ATL
2021 · W5NYJ @ ATL20–27ATL
2017 · W8ATL @ NYJ25–20ATL
2009 · W15ATL @ NYJ10–7ATL
2005 · W7NYJ @ ATL14–27ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–ATL
ATLQ1 15:00824Punt0–0
NYJQ1 11:35940Field goal3–0
ATLQ1 5:461146Touchdown3–7
NYJQ2 14:53772Touchdown10–7
ATLQ2 11:013-4Punt10–7
NYJQ2 8:56366Touchdown17–7
ATLQ2 7:19651End of half17–7
ATLQ2 3:04516End of half17–7
ATLQ2 0:3353End of half17–7
NYJQ3 15:003-2Punt17–7
ATLQ3 13:13961Touchdown17–14
NYJQ3 7:59517Punt17–14
ATLQ3 5:3449Turnover17–14
NYJQ3 3:1759Field goal20–14
ATLQ3 0:3948Punt20–14
NYJQ4 14:08423Touchdown27–14
ATLQ4 12:001080Touchdown27–21
NYJQ4 8:0338Punt27–21
ATLQ4 5:401269Touchdown27–28
NYJQ4 1:54755Field goal30–28

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith16/2019930

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bilal Powell12383.20
Mike Goodson33210.70
Chris Ivory4276.80
Geno Smith3217.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jeff Cumberland34791
Jeremy Kerley56681
Stephen Hill22210
Mike Goodson1290
David Nelson2290
Bilal Powell1290
Clyde Gates1130
Kellen Winslow1111

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan36/4531920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jacquizz Rodgers14433.12
Antone Smith188.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones811990
Tony Gonzalez1014970
Roddy White44450
Jacquizz Rodgers44150
Levine Toilolo22151
Patrick DiMarco11120
Kevin Cone11120
Harry Douglas2460

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +107.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

2.95%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.5%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.47
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.02