Closing spread
ATL -2
Total
33
Model margin
+3.3est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Jets
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.089EPA / play-0.230
- 41.5%Success rate35.6%
- -0.026EPA / dropback-0.250
- -0.171EPA / rush-0.191
- 8.7%Explosive rate6.2%
- -3.52CPOE-5.18
- 40.2%Third-down rate25.5%
- 53.3%Red-zone TD rate39.2%
- 1.58Points / drive1.01
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 40 points. NYJ are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desmond Ridder | 12/27 | 121 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 18 | 53 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 8 | 26 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Desmond Ridder | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Pitts | 4 | 8 | 51 | 0 |
| Bijan Robinson | 3 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 1 | 1 | 20 | 1 |
| Jonnu Smith | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Drake London | 1 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Boyle | 14/25 | 148 | 0 | 1 |
| Trevor Siemian | 5/13 | 66 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 9 | 35 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Breece Hall | 13 | 16 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Trevor Siemian | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Tim Boyle | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Xavier Gipson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier Gipson | 5 | 6 | 77 | 0 |
| Garrett Wilson | 3 | 7 | 50 | 0 |
| Tyler Conklin | 3 | 9 | 35 | 0 |
| Breece Hall | 6 | 8 | 29 | 0 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Allen Lazard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
1.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.9%
Expected total
40.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.09
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+1.52
- Rest differential+0.16
- Expected margin+3.29