2023 · Week 13

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Desmond Ridder

13·8

Jets

New York

QB Tim Boyle

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 50°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

ATL -2

Total

33

Model margin

+3.3est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapJets
  • -0.089EPA / play-0.230
  • 41.5%Success rate35.6%
  • -0.026EPA / dropback-0.250
  • -0.171EPA / rush-0.191
  • 8.7%Explosive rate6.2%
  • -3.52CPOE-5.18
  • 40.2%Third-down rate25.5%
  • 53.3%Red-zone TD rate39.2%
  • 1.58Points / drive1.01
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 40 points. NYJ are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W13ATL @ NYJ24–27NYJ
2021 · W5NYJ @ ATL20–27ATL
2017 · W8ATL @ NYJ25–20ATL
2013 · W5NYJ @ ATL30–28NYJ
2009 · W15ATL @ NYJ10–7ATL
2005 · W7NYJ @ ATL14–27ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–NYJ
ATLQ1 15:00616Punt0–0
NYJQ1 12:0636Punt0–0
ATLQ1 10:4956Punt0–0
NYJQ1 8:431043Punt0–0
ATLQ1 2:152-1Safety0–2
NYJQ1 1:3635Punt0–2
ATLQ2 15:0034Punt0–2
NYJQ2 13:1917Turnover0–2
ATLQ2 13:11647Touchdown7–2
NYJQ2 10:041166Field goal7–5
ATLQ2 3:5665Punt7–5
NYJQ2 1:4649Punt7–5
ATLQ2 1:13830Field goal10–5
NYJQ3 15:00857Field goal10–8
ATLQ3 10:321362Field goal13–8
NYJQ3 3:3836Punt13–8
ATLQ3 2:453-6Punt13–8
NYJQ3 1:0821Turnover13–8
ATLQ3 0:26619Punt13–8
NYJQ4 13:06715Punt13–8
ATLQ4 10:4735Punt13–8
NYJQ4 9:4234Punt13–8
ATLQ4 7:3537Punt13–8
NYJQ4 5:23522Turnover13–8
ATLQ4 2:4731Punt13–8
NYJQ4 1:53818Turnover on downs13–8
ATLQ4 0:4200End of half13–8

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Desmond Ridder12/2712110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bijan Robinson18532.90
Tyler Allgeier8263.30
Cordarrelle Patterson5112.20
Desmond Ridder300.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kyle Pitts48510
Bijan Robinson35260
MyCole Pruitt11201
Jonnu Smith23100
Drake London1580
Cordarrelle Patterson1260
KhaDarel Hodge0100

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tim Boyle14/2514801
Trevor Siemian5/136600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dalvin Cook9353.90
Breece Hall13161.20
Trevor Siemian188.00
Tim Boyle122.00
Xavier Gipson111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Xavier Gipson56770
Garrett Wilson37500
Tyler Conklin39350
Breece Hall68290
Jeremy Ruckert13120
Dalvin Cook12110
Allen Lazard0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -23.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

1.99%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.9%

Expected total

40.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.09
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.52
  • Rest differential+0.16
  • Expected margin+3.29