Closing spread
ATL -3
Total
45.5
Model margin
+2.7est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.072EPA / play-0.076
- 42.1%Success rate41.2%
- -0.066EPA / dropback-0.028
- -0.084EPA / rush-0.162
- 8.7%Explosive rate8.2%
- -7.25CPOE+0.85
- 37.8%Third-down rate38.5%
- 60.1%Red-zone TD rate52.7%
- 1.70Points / drive1.58
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 40 points. ATL are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Wilson | 19/32 | 192 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Carter | 10 | 38 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Ty Johnson | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Tevin Coleman | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Zach Wilson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Davis | 4 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| Keelan Cole | 2 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Denzel Mims | 2 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 4 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Braxton Berrios | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Elijah Moore | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 33/45 | 342 | 2 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 14 | 54 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 13 | 53 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Wayne Gallman | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Pitts | 9 | 10 | 119 | 1 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 7 | 9 | 60 | 0 |
| Tajae Sharpe | 4 | 5 | 53 | 0 |
| Hayden Hurst | 4 | 5 | 40 | 1 |
| Lee Smith | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Christian Blake | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 2 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.3%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.98
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.68