2021 · Week 5

Final

Jets

New York

QB Zach Wilson

20·27

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Tottenham Stadium · outdoors · grass · 63°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

ATL -3

Total

45.5

Model margin

+2.7est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapFalcons
  • -0.072EPA / play-0.076
  • 42.1%Success rate41.2%
  • -0.066EPA / dropback-0.028
  • -0.084EPA / rush-0.162
  • 8.7%Explosive rate8.2%
  • -7.25CPOE+0.85
  • 37.8%Third-down rate38.5%
  • 60.1%Red-zone TD rate52.7%
  • 1.70Points / drive1.58
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 40 points. ATL are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W13ATL @ NYJ24–27NYJ
2023 · W13ATL @ NYJ13–8ATL
2017 · W8ATL @ NYJ25–20ATL
2013 · W5NYJ @ ATL30–28NYJ
2009 · W15ATL @ NYJ10–7ATL
2005 · W7NYJ @ ATL14–27ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–ATL
ATLQ1 15:001447Field goal0–3
NYJQ1 8:4638Punt0–3
ATLQ1 6:581087Touchdown0–10
NYJQ1 1:4238Punt0–10
ATLQ2 15:00862Touchdown0–17
NYJQ2 11:0120Turnover0–17
ATLQ2 10:46221Turnover0–17
NYJQ2 9:571664Field goal3–17
ATLQ2 2:141034Field goal3–20
NYJQ3 15:00729Touchdown9–20
ATLQ3 10:56515Punt9–20
NYJQ3 8:46419Punt9–20
ATLQ3 6:351068Turnover9–20
NYJQ3 2:143-1Punt9–20
ATLQ3 0:28937Punt9–20
NYJQ4 9:30659Touchdown17–20
ATLQ4 6:55980Touchdown17–27
NYJQ4 2:191144Field goal20–27
ATLQ4 0:1700End of half20–27

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Zach Wilson19/3219201

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Carter10383.81
Ty Johnson4123.01
Tevin Coleman3113.70
Zach Wilson133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Corey Davis47450
Keelan Cole23380
Denzel Mims23330
Jamison Crowder46240
Ty Johnson23220
Michael Carter33200
Braxton Berrios1160
Ryan Griffin1240
Tevin Coleman0100
Elijah Moore0200

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan33/4534220
Cordarrelle Patterson0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cordarrelle Patterson14543.90
Mike Davis13534.11
Wayne Gallman122.00
Matt Ryan1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kyle Pitts9101191
Cordarrelle Patterson79600
Tajae Sharpe45530
Hayden Hurst45401
Lee Smith33300
Olamide Zaccheaus24200
Christian Blake24120
Mike Davis2580

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.0%2.7%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.3%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.98
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.68