2025 · Week 13

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Kirk Cousins

24·27

Jets

New York

QB Tyrod Taylor

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 43°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

ATL -3

Total

38.5

Model margin

-3.0est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapJets
  • -0.008EPA / play-0.129
  • 44.5%Success rate40.5%
  • +0.041EPA / dropback-0.137
  • -0.073EPA / rush-0.117
  • 9.2%Explosive rate6.5%
  • -3.36CPOE-4.21
  • 33.5%Third-down rate35.0%
  • 62.2%Red-zone TD rate50.0%
  • 1.82Points / drive1.54
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 40 points. NYJ are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W13ATL @ NYJ13–8ATL
2021 · W5NYJ @ ATL20–27ATL
2017 · W8ATL @ NYJ25–20ATL
2013 · W5NYJ @ ATL30–28NYJ
2009 · W15ATL @ NYJ10–7ATL
2005 · W7NYJ @ ATL14–27ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–NYJ
ATLQ1 15:00525Punt0–0
NYJQ1 11:43842Punt0–0
ATLQ1 7:10840Punt0–0
NYJQ1 2:51924Punt0–6
NYJQ2 14:0012Touchdown0–7
ATLQ2 13:58422Punt0–7
NYJQ2 10:5236Punt0–7
ATLQ2 9:24728Punt0–7
NYJQ2 5:414-2Punt0–7
ATLQ2 3:101157Touchdown7–7
NYJQ2 0:0900End of half7–7
NYJQ3 15:0035Punt7–7
ATLQ3 13:44881Touchdown14–7
NYJQ3 9:36265Touchdown14–14
ATLQ3 8:58740Missed field goal14–14
NYJQ3 4:47824Missed field goal14–14
ATLQ3 1:44421Field goal17–14
NYJQ4 15:0036Field goal17–17
ATLQ4 13:23974Touchdown24–17
NYJQ4 8:461570Touchdown24–24
ATLQ4 1:5331Punt24–24
NYJQ4 1:263-1Punt24–24
ATLQ4 0:5730Punt24–24
NYJQ4 0:35629Field goal24–27

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins21/3323410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bijan Robinson231426.21
Tyler Allgeier8202.51
Deven Thompkins155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kyle Pitts78820
Bijan Robinson57510
Tyler Allgeier22350
Darnell Mooney25250
Deven Thompkins22230
David Sills24151
Dylan Drummond1330

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyrod Taylor19/3317210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Breece Hall19683.61
Tyrod Taylor8445.51
John Metchie III1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Adonai Mitchell8121021
Mason Taylor24210
John Metchie III48190
Jeremy Ruckert22120
Allen Lazard11100
Breece Hall2280
Isaiah Williams0100
Isaiah Davis0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.7%3.1%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.9%3.9%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

41.1%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.43
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.74
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.98