Closing spread
ATL -3
Total
38.5
Model margin
-3.0est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.008EPA / play-0.129
- 44.5%Success rate40.5%
- +0.041EPA / dropback-0.137
- -0.073EPA / rush-0.117
- 9.2%Explosive rate6.5%
- -3.36CPOE-4.21
- 33.5%Third-down rate35.0%
- 62.2%Red-zone TD rate50.0%
- 1.82Points / drive1.54
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 40 points. NYJ are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 21/33 | 234 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 23 | 142 | 6.2 | 1 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 8 | 20 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Deven Thompkins | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Pitts | 7 | 8 | 82 | 0 |
| Bijan Robinson | 5 | 7 | 51 | 0 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 2 | 2 | 35 | 0 |
| Darnell Mooney | 2 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Deven Thompkins | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| David Sills | 2 | 4 | 15 | 1 |
| Dylan Drummond | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 19/33 | 172 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall | 19 | 68 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 8 | 44 | 5.5 | 1 |
| John Metchie III | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adonai Mitchell | 8 | 12 | 102 | 1 |
| Mason Taylor | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| John Metchie III | 4 | 8 | 19 | 0 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Allen Lazard | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Breece Hall | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Isaiah Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
41.1%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.43
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.74
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.98