2005 · Week 8

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Donovan McNabb

21·49

Broncos

Denver

QB Jake Plummer

Invesco Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 52°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

DEN -3

Total

44

Model margin

+7.0est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapBroncos
  • -0.104EPA / play+0.088
  • 39.5%Success rate44.7%
  • -0.063EPA / dropback+0.109
  • -0.192EPA / rush+0.067
  • 7.8%Explosive rate9.5%
  • 34.3%Third-down rate36.1%
  • 58.8%Red-zone TD rate65.2%
  • 1.28Points / drive1.97
  • 3.0%Turnover rate1.4%
  • -0.028EPA / play allowed-0.051

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

Meetings average 59 points. DEN are 4-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W5DEN @ PHI21–17DEN
2021 · W10PHI @ DEN30–13PHI
2017 · W9DEN @ PHI23–51PHI
2013 · W4PHI @ DEN20–52DEN
2009 · W16DEN @ PHI27–30PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–DEN
DENQ1 15:001069Touchdown0–7
PHIQ1 10:1730Punt0–7
DENQ1 9:5448Punt0–7
PHIQ1 8:1330Punt0–7
DENQ1 7:54745Touchdown0–14
PHIQ1 4:3034Punt0–14
DENQ1 2:58438Punt0–14
PHIQ1 1:0730Punt0–14
DENQ1 0:43760Touchdown0–21
PHIQ2 12:16312Turnover0–21
DENQ2 10:59643Touchdown0–28
PHIQ2 7:47415Punt0–28
DENQ2 6:01543Punt0–28
PHIQ2 3:50680Touchdown7–28
DENQ2 1:1326End of half7–28
PHIQ3 15:0032Punt7–28
DENQ3 12:23517Punt7–28
PHIQ3 10:36289Touchdown14–28
DENQ3 9:4634Punt14–28
PHIQ3 8:1259Punt14–28
DENQ3 5:5035Punt14–28
PHIQ3 4:24569Touchdown21–28
DENQ3 1:3330Punt21–28
PHIQ3 1:07735Turnover21–28
DENQ4 13:17695Touchdown21–35
PHIQ4 9:5334Punt21–35
DENQ4 8:52487Touchdown21–42
PHIQ4 6:31524Turnover on downs21–42
DENQ4 4:46744Touchdown21–49
PHIQ4 0:2618End of half21–49

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb12/3428332

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brian Westbrook13483.70
Lamar Gordon2168.00
Donovan McNabb3134.30
Terrell Owens122.00

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Plummer22/3530940

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike Anderson211266.01
Tatum Bell141077.62
Jake Plummer12222.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.1%5.9%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%2.6%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

7.25%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

67.3%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.40
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.96