Closing spread
DEN -3
Total
44
Model margin
+7.0est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.104EPA / play+0.088
- 39.5%Success rate44.7%
- -0.063EPA / dropback+0.109
- -0.192EPA / rush+0.067
- 7.8%Explosive rate9.5%
- 34.3%Third-down rate36.1%
- 58.8%Red-zone TD rate65.2%
- 1.28Points / drive1.97
- 3.0%Turnover rate1.4%
- -0.028EPA / play allowed-0.051
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
Meetings average 59 points. DEN are 4-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 12/34 | 283 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 13 | 48 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Lamar Gordon | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Terrell Owens | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 22/35 | 309 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Anderson | 21 | 126 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Tatum Bell | 14 | 107 | 7.6 | 2 |
| Jake Plummer | 1 | 22 | 22.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
7.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
67.3%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.40
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.96