2025 · Week 5

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Bo Nix

21·17

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 80°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

PHI -3.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+1.9est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapEagles
  • +0.036EPA / play+0.034
  • 43.7%Success rate43.3%
  • +0.097EPA / dropback+0.092
  • -0.069EPA / rush-0.047
  • 8.1%Explosive rate9.0%
  • -1.38CPOE+3.26
  • 42.4%Third-down rate37.5%
  • 62.1%Red-zone TD rate72.0%
  • 2.10Points / drive2.11
  • 1.3%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

Meetings average 59 points. PHI are 2-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2021 · W10PHI @ DEN30–13PHI
2017 · W9DEN @ PHI23–51PHI
2013 · W4PHI @ DEN20–52DEN
2009 · W16DEN @ PHI27–30PHI
2005 · W8PHI @ DEN21–49DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–PHI
DENQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
PHIQ1 13:2033Punt0–0
DENQ1 12:081127Field goal3–0
PHIQ1 6:491170Field goal3–3
DENQ1 0:29729Punt3–3
PHIQ2 11:52871Touchdown3–10
DENQ2 7:20422Punt3–10
PHIQ2 4:49727Punt3–10
DENQ2 2:18521Punt3–10
PHIQ2 1:1934Punt3–10
DENQ2 0:523-3Punt3–10
PHIQ2 0:0800End of half3–10
PHIQ3 15:00474Touchdown3–17
DENQ3 13:23958Punt3–17
PHIQ3 7:18523Punt3–17
DENQ3 5:1738Punt3–17
PHIQ3 3:433-11Punt3–17
DENQ3 2:381162Touchdown10–17
PHIQ4 13:1144Punt10–17
DENQ4 11:08782Touchdown18–17
PHIQ4 7:36511Punt18–17
DENQ4 5:001046Field goal21–17
PHIQ4 1:11727End of half21–17

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bo Nix24/3924210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
J.K. Dobbins20794.01
Bo Nix3227.30
RJ Harvey4123.00
Marvin Mims Jr.199.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Courtland Sutton810990
Troy Franklin35350
Evan Engram46331
RJ Harvey33180
Tyler Badie12160
Trent Sherfield12150
Adam Trautman11110
Marvin Mims Jr.25100
J.K. Dobbins1150
Nate Adkins0100

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts23/3828020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley6305.00
AJ Dillon2126.00
Jalen Hurts231.50
Will Shipley100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeVonta Smith8101140
Saquon Barkley33581
A.J. Brown58430
Jahan Dotson13240
Dallas Goedert39191
Grant Calcaterra22180
Will Shipley1240

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

2.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.1%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.09
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+1.87