Closing spread
PHI -3.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+1.9est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.036EPA / play+0.034
- 43.7%Success rate43.3%
- +0.097EPA / dropback+0.092
- -0.069EPA / rush-0.047
- 8.1%Explosive rate9.0%
- -1.38CPOE+3.26
- 42.4%Third-down rate37.5%
- 62.1%Red-zone TD rate72.0%
- 2.10Points / drive2.11
- 1.3%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
Meetings average 59 points. PHI are 2-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | 24/39 | 242 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | 20 | 79 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Bo Nix | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 |
| RJ Harvey | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 8 | 10 | 99 | 0 |
| Troy Franklin | 3 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 4 | 6 | 33 | 1 |
| RJ Harvey | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Tyler Badie | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Trent Sherfield | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Adam Trautman | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 2 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Nate Adkins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 23/38 | 280 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 6 | 30 | 5.0 | 0 |
| AJ Dillon | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jalen Hurts | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Will Shipley | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVonta Smith | 8 | 10 | 114 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 3 | 3 | 58 | 1 |
| A.J. Brown | 5 | 8 | 43 | 0 |
| Jahan Dotson | 1 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Dallas Goedert | 3 | 9 | 19 | 1 |
| Grant Calcaterra | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Will Shipley | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.1%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.09
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.87