Closing spread
DEN -1
Total
44.5
Model margin
-0.2est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Broncos
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.061EPA / play+0.021
- 46.4%Success rate44.7%
- +0.091EPA / dropback+0.100
- +0.025EPA / rush-0.093
- 10.5%Explosive rate9.1%
- +0.39CPOE+2.34
- 45.5%Third-down rate38.3%
- 66.1%Red-zone TD rate62.5%
- 2.39Points / drive1.89
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
Meetings average 59 points. DEN are 4-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 16/23 | 178 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Howard | 12 | 83 | 6.9 | 0 |
| Boston Scott | 11 | 81 | 7.4 | 0 |
| Jalen Hurts | 13 | 55 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Jalen Reagor | 1 | -8 | -8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVonta Smith | 4 | 6 | 66 | 2 |
| Quez Watkins | 4 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Dallas Goedert | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Boston Scott | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Jalen Reagor | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Jack Stoll | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 22/36 | 226 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | 8 | 48 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 9 | 45 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albert Okwuegbunam | 3 | 3 | 77 | 0 |
| Noah Fant | 5 | 6 | 59 | 0 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 6 | 9 | 48 | 0 |
| Courtland Sutton | 2 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Tim Patrick | 3 | 6 | 14 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 1 | 4 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.4%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.94
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.24