2021 · Week 10

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

30·13

Broncos

Denver

QB Teddy Bridgewater

Empower Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 57°F · wind 19mph

Closing spread

DEN -1

Total

44.5

Model margin

-0.2est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapBroncos
  • +0.061EPA / play+0.021
  • 46.4%Success rate44.7%
  • +0.091EPA / dropback+0.100
  • +0.025EPA / rush-0.093
  • 10.5%Explosive rate9.1%
  • +0.39CPOE+2.34
  • 45.5%Third-down rate38.3%
  • 66.1%Red-zone TD rate62.5%
  • 2.39Points / drive1.89
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

Meetings average 59 points. DEN are 4-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W5DEN @ PHI21–17DEN
2017 · W9DEN @ PHI23–51PHI
2013 · W4PHI @ DEN20–52DEN
2009 · W16DEN @ PHI27–30PHI
2005 · W8PHI @ DEN21–49DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–DEN
PHIQ1 15:00963Field goal3–0
DENQ1 10:133-1Punt3–0
PHIQ1 8:43980Touchdown10–0
DENQ1 3:16960Touchdown10–7
PHIQ2 13:3831Punt10–7
DENQ2 11:26565Field goal10–10
PHIQ2 9:391275Touchdown17–10
DENQ2 3:073-10Punt17–10
PHIQ2 1:49851Field goal20–10
DENQ2 0:05113End of half20–10
DENQ3 15:00771Missed field goal20–10
PHIQ3 10:5031Punt20–10
DENQ3 9:011044Field goal20–13
PHIQ3 4:51424Turnover20–13
DENQ3 3:03631Opp touchdown27–13
DENQ4 15:003-4Punt27–13
PHIQ4 13:33962Field goal30–13
DENQ4 7:3630Punt30–13
PHIQ4 6:4939Punt30–13
DENQ4 4:12839Turnover on downs30–13
PHIQ4 2:05123End of half30–13

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts16/2317821

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jordan Howard12836.90
Boston Scott11817.40
Jalen Hurts13554.20
Kenny Gainwell252.50
Jalen Reagor1-8-8.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeVonta Smith46662
Quez Watkins46330
Dallas Goedert22280
Boston Scott22240
Jalen Reagor12120
Kenny Gainwell1190
Jack Stoll2360

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Teddy Bridgewater22/3622600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Javonte Williams8486.00
Melvin Gordon9455.01
Jerry Jeudy133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Albert Okwuegbunam33770
Noah Fant56590
Jerry Jeudy69480
Courtland Sutton23290
Tim Patrick36140
Javonte Williams2310
Melvin Gordon14-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.4%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.94
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.24