Closing spread
PHI -7
Total
41
Model margin
+2.9est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.119EPA / play+0.051
- 38.4%Success rate43.3%
- -0.110EPA / dropback+0.144
- -0.134EPA / rush-0.093
- 8.3%Explosive rate8.9%
- -2.16CPOE+0.38
- 38.9%Third-down rate42.0%
- 42.9%Red-zone TD rate63.8%
- 1.24Points / drive2.12
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
Meetings average 59 points. PHI are 2-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Osweiler | 19/38 | 208 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devontae Booker | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 0 |
| C.J. Anderson | 9 | 13 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demaryius Thomas | 8 | 12 | 70 | 1 |
| Cody Latimer | 2 | 3 | 51 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 1 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 4 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| A.J. Derby | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| C.J. Anderson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Bennie Fowler | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeff Heuerman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 15/27 | 199 | 4 | 0 |
| Nick Foles | 1/1 | 35 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Ajayi | 8 | 77 | 9.6 | 1 |
| Corey Clement | 12 | 51 | 4.3 | 2 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 9 | 37 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Wendell Smallwood | 5 | 25 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Nick Foles | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alshon Jeffery | 6 | 11 | 84 | 2 |
| Trey Burton | 2 | 4 | 41 | 1 |
| Brent Celek | 3 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 2 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Corey Clement | 1 | 1 | 15 | 1 |
| Torrey Smith | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Marcus Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
4.78%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.8%
Expected total
42.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.04
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-0.98
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+2.88