2017 · Week 9

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Brock Osweiler

23·51

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Carson Wentz

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 61°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

PHI -7

Total

41

Model margin

+2.9est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

4.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapEagles
  • -0.119EPA / play+0.051
  • 38.4%Success rate43.3%
  • -0.110EPA / dropback+0.144
  • -0.134EPA / rush-0.093
  • 8.3%Explosive rate8.9%
  • -2.16CPOE+0.38
  • 38.9%Third-down rate42.0%
  • 42.9%Red-zone TD rate63.8%
  • 1.24Points / drive2.12
  • 2.9%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

Meetings average 59 points. PHI are 2-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W5DEN @ PHI21–17DEN
2021 · W10PHI @ DEN30–13PHI
2013 · W4PHI @ DEN20–52DEN
2009 · W16DEN @ PHI27–30PHI
2005 · W8PHI @ DEN21–49DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–PHI
DENQ1 15:001047Field goal3–0
PHIQ1 10:35865Touchdown3–7
DENQ1 6:3442Punt3–7
PHIQ1 4:07529Field goal3–10
DENQ1 1:5310Turnover3–10
PHIQ1 1:44315Touchdown3–17
DENQ1 0:5348Punt3–17
PHIQ2 14:1639Punt3–17
DENQ2 12:0538Field goal6–17
PHIQ2 11:05755Touchdown6–24
DENQ2 9:151169Field goal9–24
PHIQ2 3:03470Touchdown9–31
DENQ2 1:203-8Punt9–31
PHIQ2 0:48623Turnover on downs9–31
PHIQ3 15:001383Touchdown9–38
DENQ3 7:3233Punt9–38
PHIQ3 6:193-4Punt9–38
DENQ3 5:182-1Turnover9–38
PHIQ3 4:25311Touchdown9–44
DENQ3 3:001475Touchdown16–44
PHIQ4 9:453-4Opp touchdown23–44
PHIQ4 8:09543Touchdown23–51
DENQ4 4:4458Punt23–51
PHIQ4 2:55525Turnover on downs23–51
DENQ4 1:42515Punt23–51
PHIQ4 0:0800End of half23–51

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Osweiler19/3820812

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devontae Booker6213.50
C.J. Anderson9131.40
Jamaal Charles410.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Demaryius Thomas812701
Cody Latimer23510
Emmanuel Sanders15300
Jamaal Charles44230
Isaiah McKenzie13140
A.J. Derby13110
Devontae Booker2390
C.J. Anderson0100
Bennie Fowler0200
Jeff Heuerman0100

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz15/2719940
Nick Foles1/13500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jay Ajayi8779.61
Corey Clement12514.32
LeGarrette Blount9374.10
Wendell Smallwood5255.00
Carson Wentz284.00
Nick Foles1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Alshon Jeffery611842
Trey Burton24411
Brent Celek34390
Nelson Agholor24360
Corey Clement11151
Torrey Smith12110
Mack Hollins1180
Marcus Johnson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

4.78%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.8%

Expected total

42.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.04
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.98
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+2.88