2009 · Week 16

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Kyle Orton

27·30

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Donovan McNabb

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 45°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

PHI -7

Total

43

Model margin

+4.2est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

4.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapEagles
  • -0.026EPA / play+0.046
  • 42.0%Success rate43.1%
  • +0.029EPA / dropback+0.086
  • -0.107EPA / rush-0.028
  • 8.9%Explosive rate10.4%
  • -2.00CPOE+0.05
  • 36.3%Third-down rate37.2%
  • 54.5%Red-zone TD rate54.1%
  • 1.49Points / drive2.04
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

Meetings average 59 points. PHI are 2-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W5DEN @ PHI21–17DEN
2021 · W10PHI @ DEN30–13PHI
2017 · W9DEN @ PHI23–51PHI
2013 · W4PHI @ DEN20–52DEN
2005 · W8PHI @ DEN21–49DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–PHI
DENQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
PHIQ1 14:051127Turnover0–0
DENQ1 9:1331Punt0–0
PHIQ1 7:17757Touchdown0–7
DENQ1 4:0838Punt0–7
PHIQ1 2:34544Field goal0–10
DENQ2 15:001270Touchdown7–10
PHIQ2 9:16488Touchdown7–17
DENQ2 7:5137Punt7–17
PHIQ2 6:591160Field goal7–20
DENQ2 0:262-4End of half7–20
PHIQ3 15:00225Turnover7–20
DENQ3 14:03925Field goal10–20
PHIQ3 9:42834Touchdown10–27
DENQ3 7:09652Turnover10–27
PHIQ3 4:3730Punt10–27
DENQ3 3:57525Touchdown17–27
PHIQ3 1:4200Touchdown17–27
DENQ3 1:33216Touchdown24–27
PHIQ3 0:533-10Punt24–27
DENQ4 14:463-8Punt24–27
PHIQ4 12:5832Punt24–27
DENQ4 11:5838Punt24–27
PHIQ4 10:5039Punt24–27
DENQ4 9:48628Field goal27–27
PHIQ4 6:05626Punt27–27
DENQ4 3:00413Punt27–27
PHIQ4 1:41532Field goal27–30
DENQ4 0:0400End of half27–30

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyle Orton27/4118931

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Correll Buckhalter5428.40
Knowshon Moreno9182.00
Kyle Orton177.00
Brandon Marshall231.50
Peyton Hillis100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jabar Gaffney78692
Brandon Marshall813390
Tony Scheffler14260
Brandon Lloyd45220
Knowshon Moreno33171
Correll Buckhalter22120
Daniel Graham2440
Brandon Stokley0100

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb20/3532231

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brian Westbrook9323.60
Donovan McNabb5295.80
LeSean McCoy6274.50
DeSean Jackson1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brent Celek451211
Jeremy Maclin610920
LeSean McCoy11390
DeSean Jackson410331
Jason Avant22251
Reggie Brown1170
Brian Westbrook2550

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.7%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

4.88%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.2%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.67
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.15