Closing spread
PHI -7
Total
43
Model margin
+4.2est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.026EPA / play+0.046
- 42.0%Success rate43.1%
- +0.029EPA / dropback+0.086
- -0.107EPA / rush-0.028
- 8.9%Explosive rate10.4%
- -2.00CPOE+0.05
- 36.3%Third-down rate37.2%
- 54.5%Red-zone TD rate54.1%
- 1.49Points / drive2.04
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
Meetings average 59 points. PHI are 2-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 27/41 | 189 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Correll Buckhalter | 5 | 42 | 8.4 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 9 | 18 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Kyle Orton | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Marshall | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jabar Gaffney | 7 | 8 | 69 | 2 |
| Brandon Marshall | 8 | 13 | 39 | 0 |
| Tony Scheffler | 1 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Brandon Lloyd | 4 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 3 | 3 | 17 | 1 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Daniel Graham | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Brandon Stokley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 20/35 | 322 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 9 | 32 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 5 | 29 | 5.8 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Celek | 4 | 5 | 121 | 1 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 6 | 10 | 92 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 1 | 1 | 39 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 4 | 10 | 33 | 1 |
| Jason Avant | 2 | 2 | 25 | 1 |
| Reggie Brown | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Brian Westbrook | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
4.88%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.2%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.67
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.15