2013 · Week 4

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Michael Vick

20·52

Broncos

Denver

QB Peyton Manning

Sports Authority Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 76°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

DEN -10.5

Total

57.5

Model margin

+9.0est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapBroncos
  • +0.100EPA / play+0.205
  • 46.4%Success rate50.2%
  • +0.181EPA / dropback+0.346
  • -0.009EPA / rush-0.029
  • 13.5%Explosive rate9.8%
  • +2.43CPOE+6.21
  • 39.3%Third-down rate47.1%
  • 56.7%Red-zone TD rate81.1%
  • 1.91Points / drive2.85
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

Meetings average 59 points. DEN are 4-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W5DEN @ PHI21–17DEN
2021 · W10PHI @ DEN30–13PHI
2017 · W9DEN @ PHI23–51PHI
2009 · W16DEN @ PHI27–30PHI
2005 · W8PHI @ DEN21–49DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–DEN
PHIQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
DENQ1 14:11969Touchdown0–7
PHIQ1 10:191065Field goal3–13
DENQ1 6:0300Touchdown3–14
PHIQ1 5:501583Field goal6–14
DENQ2 14:1835Punt6–14
PHIQ2 13:16764Touchdown13–14
DENQ2 11:061175Touchdown13–21
PHIQ2 5:05753Punt13–21
DENQ2 2:07862Punt13–21
PHIQ2 0:1000End of half13–21
DENQ3 15:001169Touchdown13–28
PHIQ3 9:54526Punt13–28
DENQ3 8:22880Touchdown13–35
PHIQ3 5:103-3Punt13–35
DENQ3 3:57765Touchdown13–42
PHIQ3 0:22524Opp touchdown13–49
PHIQ4 13:54852Missed field goal13–49
DENQ4 10:42714Field goal13–52
PHIQ4 6:53780Touchdown20–52
DENQ4 4:35834End of half20–52

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Vick14/2724800
Nick Foles3/44910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy16734.60
Mike Vick8415.10
Chris Polk33311.01
Bryce Brown8192.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brent Celek36570
Jeff Maehl22431
Bryce Brown23410
Zach Ertz12380
DeSean Jackson26340
Riley Cooper22250
LeSean McCoy13210
Chris Polk22190
James Casey11120
Jason Avant1470

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning28/3432740
Brock Osweiler2/31000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Knowshon Moreno12786.51
Ronnie Hillman11363.30
Montee Ball8243.00
Brock Osweiler231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Eric Decker57880
Demaryius Thomas910862
Wes Welker79762
Julius Thomas44430
Ronnie Hillman23210
Knowshon Moreno11130
Andre Caldwell1250
Virgil Green1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +10.55.3%6.9%3.1%4.9%3.5%3.5%2.8%2.5%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

1.69%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

72.1%

Expected total

46.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.70
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+5.10
  • Rest differential-0.32
  • Expected margin+8.96