Closing spread
DEN -10.5
Total
57.5
Model margin
+9.0est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.100EPA / play+0.205
- 46.4%Success rate50.2%
- +0.181EPA / dropback+0.346
- -0.009EPA / rush-0.029
- 13.5%Explosive rate9.8%
- +2.43CPOE+6.21
- 39.3%Third-down rate47.1%
- 56.7%Red-zone TD rate81.1%
- 1.91Points / drive2.85
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
Meetings average 59 points. DEN are 4-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 14/27 | 248 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Foles | 3/4 | 49 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 16 | 73 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 8 | 41 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Chris Polk | 3 | 33 | 11.0 | 1 |
| Bryce Brown | 8 | 19 | 2.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Celek | 3 | 6 | 57 | 0 |
| Jeff Maehl | 2 | 2 | 43 | 1 |
| Bryce Brown | 2 | 3 | 41 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 1 | 2 | 38 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 2 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Riley Cooper | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 1 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Chris Polk | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| James Casey | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 28/34 | 327 | 4 | 0 |
| Brock Osweiler | 2/3 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knowshon Moreno | 12 | 78 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 11 | 36 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Montee Ball | 8 | 24 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Brock Osweiler | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Decker | 5 | 7 | 88 | 0 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 9 | 10 | 86 | 2 |
| Wes Welker | 7 | 9 | 76 | 2 |
| Julius Thomas | 4 | 4 | 43 | 0 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Andre Caldwell | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
1.69%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
72.1%
Expected total
46.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.70
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+5.10
- Rest differential-0.32
- Expected margin+8.96