Closing spread
JAX -3.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+0.8est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.026EPA / play-0.074
- 42.5%Success rate40.7%
- +0.113EPA / dropback+0.031
- -0.079EPA / rush-0.308
- 9.0%Explosive rate8.0%
- 41.0%Third-down rate38.3%
- 64.4%Red-zone TD rate42.5%
- 1.68Points / drive1.36
- 1.5%Turnover rate3.1%
- -0.066EPA / play allowed-0.050
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 48 points. ARI are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 12/26 | 115 | 0 | 0 |
| Byron Leftwich | 2/2 | 18 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 6 | 61 | 10.2 | 1 |
| LaBrandon Toefield | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Matt Jones | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Alvin Pearman | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 29/46 | 315 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. Arrington | 6 | 39 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Marcel Shipp | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Kurt Warner | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| James Jackson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
7.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.3%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.73
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.83