Closing spread
JAX -3.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+0.8est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.026EPA / play-0.074
- 42.5%Success rate40.7%
- +0.113EPA / dropback+0.031
- -0.079EPA / rush-0.308
- 9.0%Explosive rate8.0%
- 41.0%Third-down rate38.3%
- 64.4%Red-zone TD rate42.5%
- 1.68Points / drive1.36
- 1.5%Turnover rate3.1%
- -0.066EPA / play allowed-0.050
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 48 points. ARI are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | JAX–ARI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 55 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 10:28 | 11 | 62 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| ARI | Q1 2:45 | 6 | 6 | Punt | 7–0 |
| JAX | Q1 0:11 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–0 |
| ARI | Q2 14:02 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–0 |
| JAX | Q2 13:12 | 7 | 40 | Punt | 7–0 |
| ARI | Q2 8:34 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| JAX | Q2 8:28 | 4 | 0 | Turnover on downs | 7–0 |
| ARI | Q2 8:06 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 7–0 |
| JAX | Q2 6:25 | 8 | 38 | Field goal | 10–0 |
| ARI | Q2 2:59 | 6 | 28 | Punt | 10–0 |
| JAX | Q2 1:08 | 4 | 21 | End of half | 10–0 |
| JAX | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 62 | Missed field goal | 10–0 |
| ARI | Q3 9:54 | 14 | 77 | Field goal | 16–3 |
| JAX | Q3 4:00 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 17–3 |
| ARI | Q3 3:43 | 10 | 61 | Touchdown | 17–10 |
| JAX | Q4 13:34 | 12 | 39 | Punt | 17–10 |
| ARI | Q4 7:16 | 6 | 20 | Turnover on downs | 23–10 |
| JAX | Q4 4:27 | 1 | 25 | Touchdown | 24–10 |
| ARI | Q4 4:20 | 5 | 71 | Touchdown | 24–17 |
| JAX | Q4 2:56 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 24–17 |
| ARI | Q4 1:52 | 8 | 49 | Turnover | 24–17 |
| JAX | Q4 0:23 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 24–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 12/26 | 115 | 0 | 0 |
| Byron Leftwich | 2/2 | 18 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 6 | 61 | 10.2 | 1 |
| LaBrandon Toefield | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Matt Jones | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Alvin Pearman | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 29/46 | 315 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. Arrington | 6 | 39 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Marcel Shipp | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Kurt Warner | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| James Jackson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
7.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.3%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.73
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.83