2017 · Week 12

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blake Bortles

24·27

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Blaine Gabbert

University of Phoenix Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

JAX -6.5

Total

37.5

Model margin

-3.4est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapCardinals
  • +0.020EPA / play-0.129
  • 41.7%Success rate38.8%
  • +0.095EPA / dropback-0.086
  • -0.071EPA / rush-0.207
  • 7.8%Explosive rate7.2%
  • -2.97CPOE-4.25
  • 36.9%Third-down rate35.7%
  • 62.0%Red-zone TD rate52.2%
  • 1.81Points / drive1.20
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ARI lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 48 points. ARI are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W12JAX @ ARI27–24JAX
2021 · W3ARI @ JAX31–19ARI
2013 · W11ARI @ JAX27–14ARI
2009 · W2ARI @ JAX31–17ARI
2005 · W12JAX @ ARI24–17JAX
2000 · W15ARI @ JAX10–44JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–ARI
JAXQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
ARIQ1 13:13851Field goal0–3
JAXQ1 8:22515Punt0–3
ARIQ1 6:251029Punt0–3
JAXQ1 0:221141Turnover0–3
ARIQ2 11:08521Field goal0–6
JAXQ2 9:003-14Punt0–6
ARIQ2 6:51441Touchdown0–13
JAXQ2 4:444-3Punt0–13
ARIQ2 3:0838Punt0–13
JAXQ2 2:00631Field goal3–13
ARIQ2 0:1500End of half3–13
ARIQ3 15:00730Field goal3–16
JAXQ3 11:29860Touchdown10–16
ARIQ3 7:33525Punt10–16
JAXQ3 4:2138Punt10–16
ARIQ3 2:4930Punt10–16
JAXQ3 2:1830Punt10–16
ARIQ3 0:31414Punt10–16
JAXQ4 14:14516Punt10–16
ARIQ4 13:123-5Opp touchdown17–16
ARIQ4 12:10675Touchdown17–24
JAXQ4 9:07438Touchdown24–24
ARIQ4 7:26825Turnover24–24
JAXQ4 3:38420Turnover24–24
ARIQ4 2:4239Punt24–24
JAXQ4 1:1437Punt24–24
ARIQ4 0:16222Field goal24–27
JAXQ4 0:0100Turnover24–27

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blake Bortles19/3316001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Blake Bortles66210.32
Leonard Fournette12252.10
T.J. Yeldon3103.30
Chris Ivory1-6-6.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.J. Yeldon56420
Dede Westbrook610410
Keelan Cole27300
Leonard Fournette33170
Marqise Lee12130
Marcedes Lewis12100
James O'Shaughnessy1270

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blaine Gabbert22/3824121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson20794.00
Blaine Gabbert6172.80
Kerwynn Williams382.70
D.J. Foster144.00
Chad Williams100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ricky Seals-Jones46721
Jaron Brown11521
Troy Niklas22220
Adrian Peterson45200
D.J. Foster34180
J.J. Nelson14140
Jermaine Gresham23130
Larry Fitzgerald38120
Kerwynn Williams11100
Chad Williams1380

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -6.52.8%3.1%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.8%3.8%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

3.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

40.0%

Expected total

41.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.18
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.97
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-3.42