Closing spread
JAX -6.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
-3.4est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.020EPA / play-0.129
- 41.7%Success rate38.8%
- +0.095EPA / dropback-0.086
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.207
- 7.8%Explosive rate7.2%
- -2.97CPOE-4.25
- 36.9%Third-down rate35.7%
- 62.0%Red-zone TD rate52.2%
- 1.81Points / drive1.20
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 48 points. ARI are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 19/33 | 160 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 6 | 62 | 10.3 | 2 |
| Leonard Fournette | 12 | 25 | 2.1 | 0 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Yeldon | 5 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Dede Westbrook | 6 | 10 | 41 | 0 |
| Keelan Cole | 2 | 7 | 30 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Marqise Lee | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| James O'Shaughnessy | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaine Gabbert | 22/38 | 241 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 20 | 79 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Kerwynn Williams | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| D.J. Foster | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Chad Williams | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Seals-Jones | 4 | 6 | 72 | 1 |
| Jaron Brown | 1 | 1 | 52 | 1 |
| Troy Niklas | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 4 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| D.J. Foster | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| J.J. Nelson | 1 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 3 | 8 | 12 | 0 |
| Kerwynn Williams | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Chad Williams | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
3.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
40.0%
Expected total
41.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.18
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-2.97
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.42