Closing spread
ARI -8
Total
51.5
Model margin
-0.8est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.079EPA / play-0.079
- 46.8%Success rate44.0%
- +0.154EPA / dropback-0.061
- -0.037EPA / rush-0.113
- 9.4%Explosive rate7.1%
- +4.19CPOE-4.53
- 45.2%Third-down rate35.6%
- 62.3%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
- 2.37Points / drive1.33
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 48 points. JAX are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 28/34 | 316 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 11 | 43 | 3.9 | 2 |
| Chase Edmonds | 11 | 26 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Kyler Murray | 7 | 19 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Rondale Moore | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 5 | 6 | 112 | 0 |
| Christian Kirk | 7 | 8 | 104 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 7 | 8 | 49 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 3 | 6 | 21 | 0 |
| Maxx Williams | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| James Conner | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Rondale Moore | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 22/34 | 219 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Robinson | 15 | 88 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Carlos Hyde | 8 | 44 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Jones | 6 | 8 | 62 | 0 |
| DJ Chark | 3 | 6 | 49 | 1 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 4 | 4 | 48 | 0 |
| James Robinson | 6 | 6 | 46 | 0 |
| Jacob Hollister | 2 | 6 | 15 | 0 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Luke Farrell | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.0%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.47
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.77