2021 · Week 3

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

31·19

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

TIAA Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 81°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

ARI -8

Total

51.5

Model margin

-0.8est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapJaguars
  • +0.079EPA / play-0.079
  • 46.8%Success rate44.0%
  • +0.154EPA / dropback-0.061
  • -0.037EPA / rush-0.113
  • 9.4%Explosive rate7.1%
  • +4.19CPOE-4.53
  • 45.2%Third-down rate35.6%
  • 62.3%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
  • 2.37Points / drive1.33
  • 1.2%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ARI lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 48 points. JAX are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W12JAX @ ARI27–24JAX
2017 · W12JAX @ ARI24–27ARI
2013 · W11ARI @ JAX27–14ARI
2009 · W2ARI @ JAX31–17ARI
2005 · W12JAX @ ARI24–17JAX
2000 · W15ARI @ JAX10–44JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–JAX
JAXQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
ARIQ1 13:2439Punt0–0
JAXQ1 11:5735Punt0–0
ARIQ1 10:04756Touchdown7–0
JAXQ1 6:42730Punt7–0
ARIQ1 3:2539Punt7–0
JAXQ1 1:05733Turnover7–0
ARIQ2 12:18628Punt7–0
JAXQ2 9:0439Punt7–0
ARIQ2 7:44728Punt7–0
JAXQ2 3:22979Touchdown7–7
ARIQ2 0:21325Opp touchdown7–13
ARIQ3 15:00517Turnover7–13
JAXQ3 13:0336Punt7–13
ARIQ3 12:251168Field goal10–13
JAXQ3 7:38875Touchdown10–19
ARIQ3 3:33575Touchdown17–19
JAXQ3 1:2124Opp touchdown24–19
JAXQ3 0:24414Punt24–19
ARIQ4 13:411165Touchdown31–19
JAXQ4 6:49836Turnover31–19
ARIQ4 4:11527Punt31–19
JAXQ4 2:111063Turnover31–19

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray28/3431601

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Conner11433.92
Chase Edmonds11262.40
Kyler Murray7192.71
Rondale Moore133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Green561120
Christian Kirk781040
Chase Edmonds78490
DeAndre Hopkins36210
Maxx Williams33190
James Conner11100
Rondale Moore2210

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence22/3421912

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Robinson15885.91
Carlos Hyde8445.50
Trevor Lawrence6274.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marvin Jones68620
DJ Chark36491
Laviska Shenault Jr.44480
James Robinson66460
Jacob Hollister26150
Phillip Dorsett0100
Luke Farrell11-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -82.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.0%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.47
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.77