Closing spread
ARI -9.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+0.1est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.020EPA / play-0.156
- 41.6%Success rate38.3%
- +0.035EPA / dropback-0.143
- -0.109EPA / rush-0.181
- 8.5%Explosive rate6.6%
- +3.74CPOE-4.13
- 35.3%Third-down rate31.0%
- 59.3%Red-zone TD rate42.0%
- 1.71Points / drive1.03
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 48 points. JAX are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 30/42 | 419 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashard Mendenhall | 12 | 14 | 1.2 | 1 |
| Andre Ellington | 9 | 3 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Floyd | 6 | 10 | 193 | 1 |
| Rob Housler | 6 | 9 | 70 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 6 | 9 | 61 | 1 |
| Jake Ballard | 1 | 1 | 29 | 0 |
| Jim Dray | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 3 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Andre Ellington | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Henne | 27/42 | 255 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 14 | 23 | 1.6 | 1 |
| Jordan Todman | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Noble | 1 | 1 | 62 | 1 |
| Ace Sanders | 8 | 10 | 61 | 0 |
| Clay Harbor | 3 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 3 | 7 | 23 | 0 |
| Mike Brown | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Cecil Shorts | 2 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Kerry Taylor | 2 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 4 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Jordan Todman | 1 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
1.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.3%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.38
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.10