2013 · Week 11

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Carson Palmer

27·14

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Chad Henne

EverBank Field · outdoors · grass · 76°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

ARI -9.5

Total

40.5

Model margin

+0.1est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapJaguars
  • -0.020EPA / play-0.156
  • 41.6%Success rate38.3%
  • +0.035EPA / dropback-0.143
  • -0.109EPA / rush-0.181
  • 8.5%Explosive rate6.6%
  • +3.74CPOE-4.13
  • 35.3%Third-down rate31.0%
  • 59.3%Red-zone TD rate42.0%
  • 1.71Points / drive1.03
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ARI lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 48 points. JAX are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W12JAX @ ARI27–24JAX
2021 · W3ARI @ JAX31–19ARI
2017 · W12JAX @ ARI24–27ARI
2009 · W2ARI @ JAX31–17ARI
2005 · W12JAX @ ARI24–17JAX
2000 · W15ARI @ JAX10–44JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–JAX
JAXQ1 15:00471Touchdown0–7
ARIQ1 12:531080Touchdown7–7
JAXQ1 7:50729Touchdown7–14
ARIQ1 5:08925Punt7–14
JAXQ1 0:10533Punt7–14
ARIQ2 12:0536Punt7–14
ARIQ2 10:3100Punt7–14
JAXQ2 10:2836Punt7–14
ARIQ2 8:51742Punt7–14
JAXQ2 5:433-2Punt7–14
ARIQ2 4:01570Touchdown14–14
JAXQ2 1:5538Punt14–14
ARIQ2 1:053-6Punt14–14
JAXQ2 0:0500Missed field goal14–14
ARIQ3 15:00877Field goal17–14
JAXQ3 10:36421Punt17–14
ARIQ3 8:58391Touchdown24–14
JAXQ3 7:29638Punt24–14
ARIQ3 5:343-1Punt24–14
JAXQ3 3:093-1Punt24–14
ARIQ3 1:5055Punt24–14
JAXQ4 13:49513Punt24–14
ARIQ4 11:1237Punt24–14
JAXQ4 9:5120Turnover24–14
ARIQ4 9:19418Field goal27–14
JAXQ4 7:031045Turnover on downs27–14
ARIQ4 3:5535Punt27–14
JAXQ4 2:22613Turnover27–14
ARIQ4 1:3200End of half27–14

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer30/4241920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashard Mendenhall12141.21
Andre Ellington930.30
Carson Palmer3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Floyd6101931
Rob Housler69700
Larry Fitzgerald69611
Jake Ballard11290
Jim Dray22180
Andre Roberts34140
Rashard Mendenhall33130
Andre Ellington22100

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chad Henne27/4225512

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Jones-Drew14231.61
Jordan Todman294.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Danny Noble11621
Ace Sanders810610
Clay Harbor35320
Marcedes Lewis37230
Mike Brown23230
Cecil Shorts25220
Kerry Taylor25200
Maurice Jones-Drew44120
Jordan Todman11-50

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -9.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

1.09%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.3%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.38
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.10