Closing spread
JAX -3
Total
42.5
Model margin
+1.1est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.026EPA / play+0.008
- 45.3%Success rate43.2%
- +0.037EPA / dropback-0.010
- -0.143EPA / rush+0.036
- 9.9%Explosive rate8.2%
- +3.71CPOE+1.59
- 36.7%Third-down rate46.1%
- 73.5%Red-zone TD rate59.7%
- 1.75Points / drive1.59
- 3.4%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 48 points. JAX are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 24/26 | 243 | 2 | 0 |
| Matt Leinart | 3/6 | 22 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Hightower | 15 | 72 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Chris Wells | 7 | 44 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Kurt Warner | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Matt Leinart | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Breaston | 5 | 5 | 83 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 8 | 9 | 69 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 4 | 5 | 34 | 1 |
| Jerheme Urban | 2 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Anthony Becht | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Stephen Spach | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Jason Wright | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 23/43 | 282 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 13 | 66 | 5.1 | 0 |
| David Garrard | 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Montell Owens | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Sims-Walker | 6 | 9 | 106 | 1 |
| Torry Holt | 6 | 11 | 65 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 3 | 5 | 62 | 1 |
| Troy Williamson | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 4 | 7 | 17 | 0 |
| Nate Hughes | 2 | 6 | 8 | 0 |
| Ernest Wilford | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Greg Estandia | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Montell Owens | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
7.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.2%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.34
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.15