2009 · Week 2

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kurt Warner

31·17

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB David Garrard

Jacksonville Municipal Stadium · outdoors · grass · 83°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

JAX -3

Total

42.5

Model margin

+1.1est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapJaguars
  • -0.026EPA / play+0.008
  • 45.3%Success rate43.2%
  • +0.037EPA / dropback-0.010
  • -0.143EPA / rush+0.036
  • 9.9%Explosive rate8.2%
  • +3.71CPOE+1.59
  • 36.7%Third-down rate46.1%
  • 73.5%Red-zone TD rate59.7%
  • 1.75Points / drive1.59
  • 3.4%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ARI lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 48 points. JAX are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W12JAX @ ARI27–24JAX
2021 · W3ARI @ JAX31–19ARI
2017 · W12JAX @ ARI24–27ARI
2013 · W11ARI @ JAX27–14ARI
2005 · W12JAX @ ARI24–17JAX
2000 · W15ARI @ JAX10–44JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–JAX
ARIQ1 15:001170Touchdown7–0
JAXQ1 8:07662Field goal7–3
ARIQ1 4:41858Field goal10–3
JAXQ1 0:0337Punt10–3
JAXQ2 13:033-2Opp touchdown17–3
JAXQ2 11:30724Punt17–3
ARIQ2 8:22851Turnover17–3
JAXQ2 4:30550Turnover17–3
ARIQ2 2:13768Touchdown24–3
JAXQ2 0:5538Punt24–3
ARIQ2 0:1000End of half24–3
JAXQ3 15:00422Punt24–3
ARIQ3 13:24738Missed field goal24–3
JAXQ3 10:10618Turnover24–3
ARIQ3 7:32438Touchdown31–3
JAXQ3 5:28946Touchdown31–10
ARIQ3 1:31729Punt31–10
JAXQ4 12:201485Touchdown31–17
ARIQ4 7:1130Punt31–17
JAXQ4 6:06531Turnover on downs31–17
ARIQ4 4:29521Punt31–17
JAXQ4 2:58421Turnover31–17
ARIQ4 2:25114End of half31–17

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kurt Warner24/2624320
Matt Leinart3/62200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tim Hightower15724.81
Chris Wells7446.30
Anquan Boldin144.00
LaRod Stephens-Howling122.00
Kurt Warner1-1-1.00
Matt Leinart3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Breaston55830
Anquan Boldin89690
Larry Fitzgerald45341
Jerheme Urban24250
Anthony Becht12160
LaRod Stephens-Howling22140
Tim Hightower33120
Stephen Spach1170
Jason Wright1151

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
David Garrard23/4328221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Jones-Drew13665.10
David Garrard4276.80
Rashad Jennings210.50
Montell Owens1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Sims-Walker691061
Torry Holt611650
Marcedes Lewis35621
Troy Williamson22240
Maurice Jones-Drew47170
Nate Hughes2680
Ernest Wilford0100
Greg Estandia0100
Montell Owens0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

7.45%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.2%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.34
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.15