Closing spread
JAX -2.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
-4.2est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.039EPA / play-0.014
- 44.5%Success rate43.0%
- +0.110EPA / dropback+0.042
- -0.073EPA / rush-0.142
- 8.3%Explosive rate6.8%
- -1.56CPOE+1.10
- 40.9%Third-down rate41.6%
- 66.3%Red-zone TD rate56.5%
- 2.30Points / drive1.88
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 48 points. ARI are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 18/30 | 256 | 3 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne | 15 | 86 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 5 | 29 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | 7 | 17 | 2.4 | 0 |
| LeQuint Allen Jr. | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brenton Strange | 5 | 5 | 93 | 0 |
| Parker Washington | 5 | 7 | 71 | 1 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 4 | 6 | 50 | 1 |
| Travis Etienne | 3 | 4 | 30 | 1 |
| Johnny Mundt | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Tim Patrick | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Austin Trammell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 33/49 | 317 | 1 | 0 |
| Kedon Slovis | 1/1 | -2 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Carter | 5 | 28 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Bam Knight | 10 | 12 | 1.2 | 1 |
| Greg Dortch | 2 | -5 | -2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Wilson | 10 | 15 | 118 | 0 |
| Trey McBride | 9 | 10 | 79 | 0 |
| Greg Dortch | 6 | 9 | 53 | 1 |
| Michael Carter | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Bam Knight | 4 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Xavier Weaver | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Josiah Deguara | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
37.9%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.91
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-4.21