2025 · Week 12

Final / OT

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

27·24

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Jacoby Brissett

State Farm Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

JAX -2.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

-4.2est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapCardinals
  • +0.039EPA / play-0.014
  • 44.5%Success rate43.0%
  • +0.110EPA / dropback+0.042
  • -0.073EPA / rush-0.142
  • 8.3%Explosive rate6.8%
  • -1.56CPOE+1.10
  • 40.9%Third-down rate41.6%
  • 66.3%Red-zone TD rate56.5%
  • 2.30Points / drive1.88
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ARI lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 48 points. ARI are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2021 · W3ARI @ JAX31–19ARI
2017 · W12JAX @ ARI24–27ARI
2013 · W11ARI @ JAX27–14ARI
2009 · W2ARI @ JAX31–17ARI
2005 · W12JAX @ ARI24–17JAX
2000 · W15ARI @ JAX10–44JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–ARI
ARIQ1 15:00819Punt0–0
JAXQ1 9:35492Touchdown7–0
ARIQ1 7:10827Punt7–0
JAXQ1 3:203-1Opp touchdown7–7
JAXQ1 2:26931Field goal10–7
ARIQ2 12:551250Touchdown10–14
JAXQ2 7:3134Punt10–14
ARIQ2 6:061684Missed field goal10–14
JAXQ2 0:132-8End of half10–14
JAXQ3 15:00451Turnover10–14
ARIQ3 12:5846Punt10–14
JAXQ3 10:55642Touchdown17–14
ARIQ3 8:105-7Punt17–14
JAXQ3 5:0337Turnover17–14
ARIQ3 3:293-8Punt17–14
JAXQ3 1:35521Punt17–14
ARIQ4 13:36412Punt17–14
JAXQ4 12:22733Turnover17–14
ARIQ4 8:39341Touchdown17–21
JAXQ4 7:12760Touchdown24–21
ARIQ4 3:4758Turnover on downs24–21
JAXQ4 1:5849Turnover on downs24–21
ARIQ4 1:38864Field goal24–24
JAXQ4 0:0300End of half24–24
JAXOT431Field goal27–24
ARIOT830Turnover on downs27–24

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence18/3025633

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Etienne15865.70
Trevor Lawrence5295.80
Bhayshul Tuten7172.40
LeQuint Allen Jr.122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brenton Strange55930
Parker Washington57711
Jakobi Meyers46501
Travis Etienne34301
Johnny Mundt12120
Tim Patrick0400
Austin Trammell0100
Bhayshul Tuten0100

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jacoby Brissett33/4931710
Kedon Slovis1/1-200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Carter5285.60
Jacoby Brissett3206.70
Bam Knight10121.21
Greg Dortch2-5-2.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Wilson10151180
Trey McBride910790
Greg Dortch69531
Michael Carter33300
Bam Knight45200
Xavier Weaver1390
Josiah Deguara1160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.52.9%3.2%4.9%3.2%7.5%6.6%3.7%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

2.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

37.9%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.91
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-4.21