Closing spread
JAX -15
Total
42
Model margin
+7.5est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
1.4%est.
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.126EPA / play+0.010
- 39.0%Success rate41.4%
- -0.066EPA / dropback+0.066
- -0.243EPA / rush-0.071
- 7.4%Explosive rate8.0%
- 36.7%Third-down rate42.8%
- 39.7%Red-zone TD rate55.4%
- 1.04Points / drive1.87
- 4.0%Turnover rate2.4%
- +0.104EPA / play allowed-0.022
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 48 points. JAX are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ARI–JAX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 52 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| ARI | Q1 9:11 | 2 | 3 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| JAX | Q1 8:15 | 3 | 40 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| ARI | Q1 7:15 | 13 | 54 | Missed field goal | 0–10 |
| JAX | Q1 0:12 | 6 | 45 | Touchdown | 0–17 |
| ARI | Q2 12:49 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–17 |
| JAX | Q2 11:45 | 10 | 89 | Touchdown | 0–24 |
| ARI | Q2 6:31 | 11 | 66 | Field goal | 3–24 |
| JAX | Q2 1:08 | 5 | 37 | Field goal | 3–27 |
| ARI | Q2 0:04 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 3–27 |
| ARI | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 3–27 |
| JAX | Q3 13:44 | 8 | 45 | Field goal | 3–30 |
| ARI | Q3 9:04 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 3–30 |
| JAX | Q3 7:38 | 5 | 53 | Touchdown | 3–37 |
| ARI | Q3 5:33 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 3–37 |
| JAX | Q3 3:30 | 5 | 12 | Punt | 3–37 |
| ARI | Q3 0:45 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 3–43 |
| JAX | Q4 14:38 | 1 | 65 | Touchdown | 3–44 |
| ARI | Q4 14:27 | 8 | 73 | Touchdown | 10–44 |
| JAX | Q4 9:45 | 14 | 31 | End of half | 10–44 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dave Brown | 11/19 | 135 | 0 | 1 |
| Chris Greisen | 4/7 | 46 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 7 | 40 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Chris Greisen | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 11 | -1 | -0.1 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Sanders | 4 | 6 | 90 | 1 |
| David Boston | 2 | 8 | 25 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Terry Hardy | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| MarTay Jenkins | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Mac Cody | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Dennis McKinley | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Chris Gedney | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 13/18 | 182 | 2 | 0 |
| Jamie Martin | 2/3 | 73 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 23 | 137 | 6.0 | 2 |
| Anthony Johnson | 13 | 39 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 2 | 30 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Jermaine Williams | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Shyrone Stith | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Jamie Martin | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Smith | 8 | 9 | 147 | 1 |
| Keenan McCardell | 3 | 4 | 65 | 1 |
| Kyle Brady | 2 | 2 | 21 | 1 |
| Fred Taylor | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Anthony Johnson | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Rich Griffith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
1.38%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
68.5%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.40
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.51
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.45