Closing spread
NO -1
Total
37
Model margin
+2.8est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Jets
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.096EPA / play-0.124
- 41.1%Success rate40.1%
- -0.030EPA / dropback-0.093
- -0.205EPA / rush-0.171
- 8.1%Explosive rate5.7%
- 38.7%Third-down rate35.3%
- 42.9%Red-zone TD rate39.0%
- 1.11Points / drive1.30
- 3.5%Turnover rate2.9%
- +0.032EPA / play allowed+0.002
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 5–2 since 1999
NO have won 3 straight. Meetings average 38.4 points. NYJ are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 17/23 | 181 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Stecker | 11 | 54 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Antowain Smith | 12 | 45 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Aaron Brooks | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brooks Bollinger | 19/28 | 251 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 24 | 91 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Brooks Bollinger | 6 | 15 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Cedric Houston | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.5%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.20
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.77