2017 · Week 15

Final

Jets

New York

QB Bryce Petty

19·31

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NO -16.5

Total

47

Model margin

+8.7est.

NO perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapSaints
  • -0.073EPA / play+0.092
  • 38.5%Success rate45.3%
  • -0.000EPA / dropback+0.140
  • -0.181EPA / rush+0.026
  • 8.7%Explosive rate12.4%
  • +0.98CPOE+4.74
  • 36.0%Third-down rate38.5%
  • 57.7%Red-zone TD rate65.9%
  • 1.51Points / drive2.37
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 5–2 since 1999

NO have won 3 straight. Meetings average 38.4 points. NO are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W16NYJ @ NO6–29NO
2021 · W14NO @ NYJ30–9NO
2013 · W9NO @ NYJ20–26NYJ
2009 · W4NYJ @ NO10–24NO
2005 · W12NO @ NYJ21–19NO
2001 · W8NYJ @ NO16–9NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–NO
NOQ1 15:00671Field goal0–3
NYJQ1 11:36617Punt0–3
NOQ1 8:321362Touchdown0–10
NYJQ1 3:071355Touchdown7–10
NOQ2 10:58985Touchdown7–17
NYJQ2 6:1237Punt7–17
NOQ2 4:2632Punt7–17
NYJQ2 2:57524Punt7–17
NOQ2 1:2722Turnover7–17
NYJQ2 1:1430Field goal10–17
NOQ2 0:0900End of half10–17
NYJQ3 15:00523Punt10–17
NOQ3 12:5331Punt10–17
NYJQ3 11:56858Field goal13–17
NOQ3 8:0731Punt13–17
NYJQ3 6:10323Turnover13–17
NOQ3 4:42516Turnover13–17
NYJQ3 3:1336Punt13–17
NOQ3 1:40536Turnover13–17
NYJQ4 14:4858Punt13–17
NOQ4 12:22962Touchdown13–24
NYJQ4 7:39622Punt13–24
NOQ4 5:51620Punt13–24
NYJQ4 3:23748Touchdown19–24
NOQ4 1:51255Touchdown19–31
NYJQ4 1:3343Turnover19–31

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bryce Petty19/3917912

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bilal Powell13443.41
Matt Forte7243.40
Elijah McGuire4246.00
Bryce Petty2168.00
JoJo Natson11515.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Elijah McGuire33481
Robbie Chosen512400
Jermaine Kearse35280
Chad Hansen34210
JoJo Natson12190
Austin Seferian-Jenkins22130
Matt Forte25100
Bilal Powell0100
ArDarius Stewart0100

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees26/3628121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Ingram12746.22
Alvin Kamara12443.70
Tommylee Lewis166.00
Drew Brees1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Thomas911931
Mark Ingram56770
Alvin Kamara67451
Willie Snead13230
Josh Hill12220
Brandon Coleman35160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +16.57.0%3.1%5.0%3.5%3.4%2.8%2.4%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

2.80%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

71.5%

Expected total

46.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.42
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.31
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+8.71