Closing spread
NO -16.5
Total
47
Model margin
+8.7est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.073EPA / play+0.092
- 38.5%Success rate45.3%
- -0.000EPA / dropback+0.140
- -0.181EPA / rush+0.026
- 8.7%Explosive rate12.4%
- +0.98CPOE+4.74
- 36.0%Third-down rate38.5%
- 57.7%Red-zone TD rate65.9%
- 1.51Points / drive2.37
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 5–2 since 1999
NO have won 3 straight. Meetings average 38.4 points. NO are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Petty | 19/39 | 179 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bilal Powell | 13 | 44 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Matt Forte | 7 | 24 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Elijah McGuire | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Bryce Petty | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| JoJo Natson | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elijah McGuire | 3 | 3 | 48 | 1 |
| Robbie Chosen | 5 | 12 | 40 | 0 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 3 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Chad Hansen | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| JoJo Natson | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Austin Seferian-Jenkins | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 2 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| ArDarius Stewart | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 26/36 | 281 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 12 | 74 | 6.2 | 2 |
| Alvin Kamara | 12 | 44 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Tommylee Lewis | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Thomas | 9 | 11 | 93 | 1 |
| Mark Ingram | 5 | 6 | 77 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 6 | 7 | 45 | 1 |
| Willie Snead | 1 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Josh Hill | 1 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Brandon Coleman | 3 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.80%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
71.5%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.42
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+3.31
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+8.71