Closing spread
NO -6.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+0.6est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.031EPA / play-0.068
- 41.1%Success rate38.2%
- +0.011EPA / dropback+0.007
- -0.079EPA / rush-0.203
- 10.9%Explosive rate8.8%
- 37.4%Third-down rate38.8%
- 48.1%Red-zone TD rate52.3%
- 1.16Points / drive1.58
- 2.0%Turnover rate3.1%
- -0.047EPA / play allowed+0.009
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 5–2 since 1999
NO have won 3 straight. Meetings average 38.4 points. NO are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinny Testaverde | 13/22 | 145 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LaMont Jordan | 7 | 75 | 10.7 | 0 |
| Curtis Martin | 21 | 66 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wayne Chrebet | 4 | 6 | 55 | 0 |
| Laveranues Coles | 3 | 9 | 47 | 1 |
| Anthony Becht | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 |
| Curtis Martin | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 12/28 | 164 | 0 | 2 |
| Deuce McAllister | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 19 | 58 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Aaron Brooks | 8 | 50 | 6.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Horn | 5 | 8 | 83 | 0 |
| Willie Jackson | 3 | 7 | 47 | 0 |
| Robert Wilson | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Boo Williams | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 |
| Aaron Brooks | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Albert Connell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
4.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.7%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.97
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.60