2025 · Week 16

Final

Jets

New York

QB Tyrod Taylor

6·29

Saints

New Orleans

QB Tyler Shough

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NO -6.5

Total

39.5

Model margin

+8.2est.

NO perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapSaints
  • -0.129EPA / play-0.076
  • 40.5%Success rate42.4%
  • -0.137EPA / dropback-0.032
  • -0.117EPA / rush-0.155
  • 6.5%Explosive rate5.5%
  • -4.21CPOE+1.72
  • 35.0%Third-down rate39.4%
  • 50.0%Red-zone TD rate50.0%
  • 1.54Points / drive1.53
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 5–2 since 1999

NO have won 3 straight. Meetings average 38.4 points. NO are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2021 · W14NO @ NYJ30–9NO
2017 · W15NYJ @ NO19–31NO
2013 · W9NO @ NYJ20–26NYJ
2009 · W4NYJ @ NO10–24NO
2005 · W12NO @ NYJ21–19NO
2001 · W8NYJ @ NO16–9NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–NO
NOQ1 15:0028Turnover0–0
NYJQ1 14:39726Field goal3–0
NOQ1 10:381143Field goal3–3
NYJQ1 6:31529Punt3–3
NOQ1 3:17735Field goal3–6
NYJQ2 14:18532Field goal6–6
NOQ2 12:38624Turnover on downs6–6
NYJQ2 9:4733Punt6–6
NOQ2 7:171473Field goal6–9
NYJQ2 1:3162Punt6–9
NOQ2 0:54648Missed field goal6–9
NYJQ3 15:00610Punt6–9
NOQ3 11:323-3Punt6–9
NYJQ3 9:55718Punt6–9
NOQ3 6:011293Touchdown6–16
NYJQ3 0:41621Turnover6–16
NOQ4 12:45414Field goal6–19
NYJQ4 11:09617Turnover6–19
NOQ4 9:081033Field goal6–22
NYJQ4 5:1789Turnover on downs6–22
NOQ4 2:50344Touchdown6–29
NYJQ4 1:54728End of half6–29

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brady Cook22/3518801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Breece Hall16543.40
Isaiah Davis382.70
Brady Cook122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Isaiah Davis44520
Adonai Mitchell36430
Stone Smartt55340
Isaiah Williams44250
Jeremy Ruckert23140
Breece Hall2390
Tyler Johnson1170
John Metchie III1540
Jelani Woods0200
Arian Smith0100

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyler Shough32/4930810
Taysom Hill1/13810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Taysom Hill12423.50
Audric Estimé5193.80
Mason Tipton11212.00
Tyler Shough284.00
Evan Hull530.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Olave10161482
Juwan Johnson89890
Taysom Hill46360
Mason Tipton45290
Kevin Austin Jr.23180
Audric Estimé34170
Foster Moreau1150
Jack Stoll1240
Dante Pettis0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.52.8%5.5%7.1%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

4.98%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

70.2%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+7.06
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.60
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+8.17