Closing spread
NO -6.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
+8.2est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.129EPA / play-0.076
- 40.5%Success rate42.4%
- -0.137EPA / dropback-0.032
- -0.117EPA / rush-0.155
- 6.5%Explosive rate5.5%
- -4.21CPOE+1.72
- 35.0%Third-down rate39.4%
- 50.0%Red-zone TD rate50.0%
- 1.54Points / drive1.53
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 5–2 since 1999
NO have won 3 straight. Meetings average 38.4 points. NO are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Cook | 22/35 | 188 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall | 16 | 54 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Isaiah Davis | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Brady Cook | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Davis | 4 | 4 | 52 | 0 |
| Adonai Mitchell | 3 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Stone Smartt | 5 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Isaiah Williams | 4 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Breece Hall | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Tyler Johnson | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| John Metchie III | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0 |
| Jelani Woods | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Arian Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Shough | 32/49 | 308 | 1 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 1/1 | 38 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taysom Hill | 12 | 42 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Audric Estimé | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Mason Tipton | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Tyler Shough | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Evan Hull | 5 | 3 | 0.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Olave | 10 | 16 | 148 | 2 |
| Juwan Johnson | 8 | 9 | 89 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 4 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Mason Tipton | 4 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Kevin Austin Jr. | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Audric Estimé | 3 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Foster Moreau | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Jack Stoll | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Dante Pettis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
4.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
70.2%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+7.06
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.60
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+8.17