Closing spread
NO -6
Total
45.5
Model margin
+0.2est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.115EPA / play-0.105
- 47.2%Success rate37.6%
- +0.209EPA / dropback-0.105
- -0.077EPA / rush-0.104
- 9.5%Explosive rate8.3%
- +5.36CPOE-4.00
- 45.1%Third-down rate38.8%
- 64.9%Red-zone TD rate46.5%
- 2.21Points / drive1.25
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 5–2 since 1999
NO have won 3 straight. Meetings average 38.4 points. NYJ are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 30/51 | 382 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Thomas | 6 | 24 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Josh Hill | 1 | -8 | -8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Graham | 9 | 12 | 116 | 2 |
| Robert Meachem | 4 | 5 | 93 | 0 |
| Lance Moore | 6 | 10 | 70 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 7 | 10 | 66 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 3 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Toon | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Hill | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 8/19 | 115 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 1/1 | 25 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Ivory | 18 | 139 | 7.7 | 1 |
| Bilal Powell | 9 | 29 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Josh Cribbs | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Salas | 2 | 3 | 57 | 0 |
| Zach Sudfeld | 2 | 4 | 46 | 0 |
| David Nelson | 1 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Stephen Hill | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.90%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.7%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.26
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.23