Closing spread
NO -7.5
Total
47
Model margin
+1.7est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.060EPA / play+0.118
- 39.7%Success rate48.1%
- -0.151EPA / dropback+0.231
- +0.011EPA / rush-0.028
- 10.1%Explosive rate10.3%
- -5.62CPOE+6.47
- 37.4%Third-down rate45.6%
- 57.1%Red-zone TD rate60.6%
- 1.61Points / drive2.36
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 5–2 since 1999
NO have won 3 straight. Meetings average 38.4 points. NO are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 14/27 | 138 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 13 | 48 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Mark Sanchez | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 4 | 23 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerricho Cotchery | 5 | 9 | 71 | 0 |
| Dustin Keller | 3 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 4 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Chansi Stuckey | 1 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 20/32 | 190 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Thomas | 19 | 86 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Reggie Bush | 6 | 37 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Thomas | 4 | 4 | 46 | 0 |
| Jeremy Shockey | 4 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Marques Colston | 2 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Devery Henderson | 3 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 1 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| David Thomas | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 3 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Lance Moore | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.7%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.75
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.74