2009 · Week 4

Final

Jets

New York

QB Mark Sanchez

10·24

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Louisiana Superdome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

NO -7.5

Total

47

Model margin

+1.7est.

NO perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapSaints
  • -0.060EPA / play+0.118
  • 39.7%Success rate48.1%
  • -0.151EPA / dropback+0.231
  • +0.011EPA / rush-0.028
  • 10.1%Explosive rate10.3%
  • -5.62CPOE+6.47
  • 37.4%Third-down rate45.6%
  • 57.1%Red-zone TD rate60.6%
  • 1.61Points / drive2.36
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 5–2 since 1999

NO have won 3 straight. Meetings average 38.4 points. NO are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W16NYJ @ NO6–29NO
2021 · W14NO @ NYJ30–9NO
2017 · W15NYJ @ NO19–31NO
2013 · W9NO @ NYJ20–26NYJ
2005 · W12NO @ NYJ21–19NO
2001 · W8NYJ @ NO16–9NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–NO
NOQ1 15:001370Field goal0–3
NYJQ1 8:06727Punt0–3
NOQ1 4:3932Punt0–3
NYJQ1 2:59634Opp touchdown0–10
NYJQ2 14:4538Punt0–10
NOQ2 13:26964Turnover on downs0–10
NYJQ2 9:462-2Opp touchdown0–17
NYJQ2 9:001360Field goal3–17
NOQ2 1:48622Punt3–17
NYJQ2 0:362-1End of half3–17
NYJQ3 15:00521Punt3–17
NOQ3 12:5632Punt3–17
NYJQ3 11:4339Punt3–17
NOQ3 10:19323Turnover3–17
NYJQ3 9:04434Touchdown10–17
NOQ3 7:48752Turnover on downs10–17
NYJQ3 3:5239Punt10–17
NOQ3 2:15520Punt10–17
NYJQ4 14:5338Punt10–17
NOQ4 12:561268Touchdown10–24
NYJQ4 6:07533Turnover10–24
NOQ4 4:09422Punt10–24
NYJQ4 1:4724Turnover10–24
NOQ4 1:1600End of half10–24

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Sanchez14/2713803

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Thomas Jones13483.71
Mark Sanchez4246.00
Shonn Greene4235.80
Brad Smith22010.00
Leon Washington4174.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jerricho Cotchery59710
Dustin Keller35310
Leon Washington45240
Chansi Stuckey1580
Brad Smith1340

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees20/3219000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Pierre Thomas19864.51
Reggie Bush6376.20
Robert Meachem11313.00
Drew Brees351.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Pierre Thomas44460
Jeremy Shockey45340
Marques Colston26330
Devery Henderson35210
Robert Meachem13190
David Thomas11180
Reggie Bush3470
Lance Moore1110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.54.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

2.04%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.7%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.75
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.74