2021 · Week 14

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Taysom Hill

30·9

Jets

New York

QB Zach Wilson

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 46°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

NO -4.5

Total

42

Model margin

-2.2est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapJets
  • -0.063EPA / play-0.072
  • 41.1%Success rate42.1%
  • +0.003EPA / dropback-0.066
  • -0.147EPA / rush-0.084
  • 7.0%Explosive rate8.7%
  • -5.00CPOE-7.25
  • 36.1%Third-down rate37.8%
  • 64.1%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
  • 1.88Points / drive1.70
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 5–2 since 1999

NO have won 3 straight. Meetings average 38.4 points. NYJ are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W16NYJ @ NO6–29NO
2017 · W15NYJ @ NO19–31NO
2013 · W9NO @ NYJ20–26NYJ
2009 · W4NYJ @ NO10–24NO
2005 · W12NO @ NYJ21–19NO
2001 · W8NYJ @ NO16–9NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
NOQ1 14:011365Field goal3–0
NYJQ1 6:3738Punt3–0
NOQ1 5:38819Punt3–0
NYJQ1 1:3235Punt3–0
NOQ2 15:003-18Punt3–0
NYJQ2 13:11838Field goal3–3
NOQ2 10:0139Punt3–3
NYJQ2 7:593-1Punt3–3
NOQ2 6:55654Touchdown10–3
NYJQ2 3:421162Field goal10–6
NOQ3 15:0036Punt10–6
NYJQ3 13:06819Punt10–6
NOQ3 9:591485Field goal13–6
NYJQ3 0:583-9Punt13–6
NOQ4 15:00631Field goal16–6
NYJQ4 12:22616Turnover on downs16–6
NOQ4 10:14851Touchdown23–6
NYJQ4 5:28953Field goal23–9
NOQ4 3:293-2Punt23–9
NYJQ4 3:0248Turnover on downs23–9
NOQ4 2:39344Touchdown30–9
NYJQ4 1:07554End of half30–9

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Taysom Hill15/2117500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alvin Kamara271204.41
Taysom Hill11736.62
Tony Jones6101.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nick Vannett36440
Marquez Callaway24340
Tre'Quan Smith33330
Alvin Kamara45250
Tony Jones11190
Juwan Johnson11150
Easop Winston1150

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Zach Wilson19/4220200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Zach Wilson4338.30
La'Mical Perine7284.00
Ty Johnson6172.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Braxton Berrios610520
Ty Johnson47400
D.J. Montgomery36360
Ryan Griffin23280
Keelan Cole16270
Jamison Crowder36190
Vyncint Smith0100
Denzel Mims0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -4.53.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

2.53%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

43.2%

Expected total

41.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.06
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.38
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin-2.21