Closing spread
NO -4.5
Total
42
Model margin
-2.2est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.063EPA / play-0.072
- 41.1%Success rate42.1%
- +0.003EPA / dropback-0.066
- -0.147EPA / rush-0.084
- 7.0%Explosive rate8.7%
- -5.00CPOE-7.25
- 36.1%Third-down rate37.8%
- 64.1%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
- 1.88Points / drive1.70
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 5–2 since 1999
NO have won 3 straight. Meetings average 38.4 points. NYJ are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taysom Hill | 15/21 | 175 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 27 | 120 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Taysom Hill | 11 | 73 | 6.6 | 2 |
| Tony Jones | 6 | 10 | 1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Vannett | 3 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| Marquez Callaway | 2 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Tre'Quan Smith | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 4 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Tony Jones | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Juwan Johnson | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Easop Winston | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Wilson | 19/42 | 202 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Wilson | 4 | 33 | 8.3 | 0 |
| La'Mical Perine | 7 | 28 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braxton Berrios | 6 | 10 | 52 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 4 | 7 | 40 | 0 |
| D.J. Montgomery | 3 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Keelan Cole | 1 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 3 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| Vyncint Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Denzel Mims | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.2%
Expected total
41.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.06
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.38
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-2.21