Closing spread
ARI -1
Total
43.5
Model margin
+0.1est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Texans
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.074EPA / play-0.099
- 40.7%Success rate40.0%
- +0.031EPA / dropback-0.099
- -0.308EPA / rush-0.098
- 8.0%Explosive rate6.2%
- 38.3%Third-down rate34.0%
- 42.5%Red-zone TD rate55.5%
- 1.36Points / drive1.30
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.3%
- -0.050EPA / play allowed+0.119
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 4–3 since 1999
HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.7 points. HOU are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ARI–HOU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| HOU | Q1 13:04 | 6 | 21 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q1 10:31 | 11 | 52 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| HOU | Q1 3:43 | 9 | 46 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| ARI | Q2 14:23 | 7 | 81 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| HOU | Q2 10:16 | 10 | 63 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| ARI | Q2 4:57 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| HOU | Q2 4:47 | 9 | 31 | Touchdown | 10–21 |
| ARI | Q2 1:50 | 4 | 12 | Turnover | 10–21 |
| HOU | Q2 1:18 | 7 | 29 | Field goal | 10–24 |
| ARI | Q2 0:08 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–24 |
| HOU | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 37 | Field goal | 10–27 |
| ARI | Q3 12:13 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 10–27 |
| HOU | Q3 9:21 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 10–27 |
| ARI | Q3 8:27 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 10–27 |
| HOU | Q3 7:13 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 10–27 |
| ARI | Q3 5:05 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 10–27 |
| HOU | Q3 4:09 | 5 | 19 | Turnover | 10–27 |
| ARI | Q3 1:38 | 6 | 26 | Field goal | 13–27 |
| HOU | Q4 14:46 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 13–27 |
| ARI | Q4 13:08 | 5 | 5 | Turnover | 13–27 |
| HOU | Q4 10:20 | 3 | -2 | Turnover | 13–27 |
| ARI | Q4 8:46 | 7 | 44 | Touchdown | 19–27 |
| HOU | Q4 5:32 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 19–27 |
| ARI | Q4 3:05 | 3 | 6 | Turnover | 19–27 |
| HOU | Q4 2:33 | 3 | 6 | Field goal | 19–30 |
| ARI | Q4 0:27 | 2 | 64 | End of half | 19–30 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Navarre | 14/24 | 174 | 1 | 1 |
| Kurt Warner | 10/10 | 115 | 1 | 0 |
| Josh McCown | 1/4 | 12 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcel Shipp | 6 | 28 | 4.7 | 0 |
| J.J. Arrington | 7 | 11 | 1.6 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 22/33 | 150 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Wells | 28 | 87 | 3.1 | 2 |
| Vernand Morency | 5 | 32 | 6.4 | 1 |
| David Carr | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Andre Johnson | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.4%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.45
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.12