Closing spread
HOU -10.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+5.7est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.014EPA / play-0.008
- 43.0%Success rate41.7%
- +0.042EPA / dropback+0.083
- -0.142EPA / rush-0.149
- 6.8%Explosive rate7.2%
- +1.10CPOE-1.68
- 41.6%Third-down rate37.4%
- 56.5%Red-zone TD rate48.6%
- 1.88Points / drive2.05
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 4–3 since 1999
HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.7 points. HOU are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 27/40 | 249 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Carter | 14 | 56 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Corey Kiner | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Emari Demercado | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Bam Knight | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey McBride | 12 | 13 | 134 | 2 |
| Michael Wilson | 5 | 11 | 54 | 1 |
| Michael Carter | 4 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Jalen Brooks | 1 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Elijah Higgins | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Pharaoh Brown | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Emari Demercado | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 22/29 | 260 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jawhar Jordan | 15 | 101 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Woody Marks | 7 | 30 | 4.3 | 0 |
| C.J. Stroud | 6 | 10 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Collins | 3 | 4 | 85 | 2 |
| Dalton Schultz | 8 | 9 | 76 | 1 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Cade Stover | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Jawhar Jordan | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Woody Marks | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Jayden Higgins | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
1.59%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.2%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.03
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.74