2025 · Week 15

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Jacoby Brissett

20·40

Texans

Houston

QB C.J. Stroud

NRG Stadium · closed · astroturf

Closing spread

HOU -10.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

+5.7est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapTexans
  • -0.014EPA / play-0.008
  • 43.0%Success rate41.7%
  • +0.042EPA / dropback+0.083
  • -0.142EPA / rush-0.149
  • 6.8%Explosive rate7.2%
  • +1.10CPOE-1.68
  • 41.6%Third-down rate37.4%
  • 56.5%Red-zone TD rate48.6%
  • 1.88Points / drive2.05
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 4–3 since 1999

HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.7 points. HOU are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W11ARI @ HOU16–21HOU
2021 · W7HOU @ ARI5–31ARI
2017 · W11ARI @ HOU21–31HOU
2013 · W10HOU @ ARI24–27ARI
2009 · W5HOU @ ARI21–28ARI
2005 · W15ARI @ HOU19–30HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–HOU
HOUQ1 15:00259Touchdown0–7
ARIQ1 14:1100Field goal0–7
HOUQ1 14:03410Field goal0–10
ARIQ1 12:003-7Punt0–10
HOUQ1 10:23924Touchdown0–17
ARIQ1 6:121371Touchdown7–17
HOUQ2 13:41843Field goal7–20
ARIQ2 9:0137Punt7–20
HOUQ2 7:281176Field goal7–23
ARIQ2 1:44723Turnover on downs7–23
HOUQ2 0:36318Missed field goal7–23
ARIQ3 15:001263Turnover7–23
HOUQ3 8:55985Touchdown7–30
ARIQ3 4:35871Touchdown14–30
HOUQ3 0:33411Field goal14–33
ARIQ4 13:34953Touchdown20–33
HOUQ4 11:01418Punt20–33
ARIQ4 8:4436Punt20–33
HOUQ4 7:351055Touchdown20–40
ARIQ4 3:09720Turnover on downs20–40
HOUQ4 1:1300End of half20–40

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jacoby Brissett27/4024931

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Carter14564.00
Corey Kiner2115.50
Jacoby Brissett362.00
Emari Demercado111.00
Bam Knight1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Trey McBride12131342
Michael Wilson511541
Michael Carter44380
Jalen Brooks13190
Elijah Higgins1230
Pharaoh Brown2210
Emari Demercado2300

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
C.J. Stroud22/2926030

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jawhar Jordan151016.70
Woody Marks7304.30
C.J. Stroud6101.70
Dare Ogunbowale520.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nico Collins34852
Dalton Schultz89761
Dare Ogunbowale34320
Cade Stover33220
Jawhar Jordan22170
Xavier Hutchinson12160
Woody Marks1180
Jayden Higgins1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +10.56.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

1.59%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.2%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.03
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.74