Closing spread
ARI -5.5
Total
50.5
Model margin
+1.4est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.043EPA / play-0.026
- 46.2%Success rate45.3%
- +0.159EPA / dropback+0.037
- -0.149EPA / rush-0.143
- 9.6%Explosive rate9.9%
- +4.51CPOE+3.71
- 41.5%Third-down rate36.7%
- 55.5%Red-zone TD rate73.5%
- 1.79Points / drive1.75
- 2.7%Turnover rate3.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 4–3 since 1999
HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.7 points. ARI are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 35/50 | 371 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Slaton | 13 | 39 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Chris Brown | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 1 |
| Kevin Walter | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Johnson | 8 | 14 | 101 | 2 |
| Owen Daniels | 8 | 10 | 94 | 0 |
| Steve Slaton | 6 | 6 | 59 | 0 |
| Kevin Walter | 4 | 6 | 37 | 0 |
| David Anderson | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Chris Brown | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Joel Dreessen | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Andre Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| James Casey | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 26/38 | 302 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Wells | 7 | 24 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Anquan Boldin | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Kurt Warner | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anquan Boldin | 7 | 12 | 81 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 5 | 6 | 79 | 2 |
| Steve Breaston | 4 | 6 | 66 | 0 |
| Jerheme Urban | 4 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 5 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Anthony Becht | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
3.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.9%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.61
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+1.44