2009 · Week 5

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Matt Schaub

21·28

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kurt Warner

University of Phoenix Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

ARI -5.5

Total

50.5

Model margin

+1.4est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapCardinals
  • +0.043EPA / play-0.026
  • 46.2%Success rate45.3%
  • +0.159EPA / dropback+0.037
  • -0.149EPA / rush-0.143
  • 9.6%Explosive rate9.9%
  • +4.51CPOE+3.71
  • 41.5%Third-down rate36.7%
  • 55.5%Red-zone TD rate73.5%
  • 1.79Points / drive1.75
  • 2.7%Turnover rate3.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 4–3 since 1999

HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.7 points. ARI are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15ARI @ HOU20–40HOU
2023 · W11ARI @ HOU16–21HOU
2021 · W7HOU @ ARI5–31ARI
2017 · W11ARI @ HOU21–31HOU
2013 · W10HOU @ ARI24–27ARI
2005 · W15ARI @ HOU19–30HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–ARI
HOUQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
ARIQ1 13:44864Touchdown0–7
HOUQ1 9:29525Punt0–7
ARIQ1 7:02985Turnover0–7
HOUQ1 2:24854Missed field goal0–7
ARIQ2 13:2236Punt0–7
HOUQ2 11:30427Punt0–7
ARIQ2 9:28524Punt0–7
HOUQ2 6:3039Punt0–7
ARIQ2 4:19970Touchdown0–14
HOUQ2 1:4434Punt0–14
ARIQ2 1:14348Touchdown0–21
HOUQ2 0:2114End of half0–21
ARIQ3 15:0032Punt0–21
HOUQ3 12:5449Turnover on downs0–21
ARIQ3 10:5549Punt0–21
HOUQ3 9:331154Touchdown7–21
ARIQ3 3:39623Punt7–21
HOUQ3 0:34877Touchdown14–21
ARIQ4 12:1833Punt14–21
HOUQ4 11:14976Touchdown21–21
ARIQ4 6:5936Punt21–21
HOUQ4 5:52731Opp touchdown21–28
HOUQ4 2:20739Turnover on downs21–28
ARIQ4 0:4020End of half21–28

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Schaub35/5037121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Steve Slaton13393.00
Matt Schaub351.70
Chris Brown420.51
Kevin Walter1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Andre Johnson8141012
Owen Daniels810940
Steve Slaton66590
Kevin Walter46370
David Anderson34320
Chris Brown1190
Joel Dreessen1240
Jacoby Jones1240
Andre Davis0100
James Casey0100

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kurt Warner26/3830220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Wells7243.40
Tim Hightower6172.81
Anquan Boldin133.00
Kurt Warner200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Anquan Boldin712810
Larry Fitzgerald56792
Steve Breaston46660
Jerheme Urban45410
Tim Hightower55300
Anthony Becht1150
LaRod Stephens-Howling0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

3.04%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.9%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.61
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+1.44