Closing spread
ARI -20.5
Total
47
Model margin
+4.3est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.134EPA / play+0.079
- 37.6%Success rate46.8%
- -0.086EPA / dropback+0.154
- -0.213EPA / rush-0.037
- 6.1%Explosive rate9.4%
- -1.54CPOE+4.19
- 38.7%Third-down rate45.2%
- 51.0%Red-zone TD rate62.3%
- 1.50Points / drive2.37
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 4–3 since 1999
HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.7 points. ARI are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Mills | 23/32 | 135 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Johnson | 7 | 25 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 6 | 9 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Collins | 2 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 5 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 5 | 7 | 21 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 3 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Pharaoh Brown | 3 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 20/28 | 261 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Edmonds | 15 | 81 | 5.4 | 0 |
| James Conner | 10 | 64 | 6.4 | 1 |
| Kyler Murray | 6 | 10 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Jonathan Ward | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Eno Benjamin | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Colt McCoy | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 3 | 3 | 66 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 3 | 5 | 66 | 1 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 7 | 9 | 53 | 1 |
| Christian Kirk | 4 | 5 | 50 | 1 |
| Rondale Moore | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
1.78%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.4%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.55
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.26