2021 · Week 7

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Davis Mills

5·31

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

State Farm Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

ARI -20.5

Total

47

Model margin

+4.3est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapCardinals
  • -0.134EPA / play+0.079
  • 37.6%Success rate46.8%
  • -0.086EPA / dropback+0.154
  • -0.213EPA / rush-0.037
  • 6.1%Explosive rate9.4%
  • -1.54CPOE+4.19
  • 38.7%Third-down rate45.2%
  • 51.0%Red-zone TD rate62.3%
  • 1.50Points / drive2.37
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 4–3 since 1999

HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.7 points. ARI are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15ARI @ HOU20–40HOU
2023 · W11ARI @ HOU16–21HOU
2017 · W11ARI @ HOU21–31HOU
2013 · W10HOU @ ARI24–27ARI
2009 · W5HOU @ ARI21–28ARI
2005 · W15ARI @ HOU19–30HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–ARI
ARIQ1 15:00515Punt0–0
HOUQ1 12:373-6Punt0–0
ARIQ1 10:5630Punt0–0
HOUQ1 8:23833Punt2–0
ARIQ1 3:061-2Safety2–0
HOUQ1 2:58530Field goal5–0
ARIQ2 14:551475Touchdown5–7
HOUQ2 9:0169Turnover5–7
ARIQ2 5:43763Touchdown5–14
HOUQ2 2:45417Punt5–14
ARIQ2 1:37855Field goal5–17
HOUQ2 0:0500End of half5–17
HOUQ3 15:00723Punt5–17
ARIQ3 11:31788Touchdown5–24
HOUQ3 7:5838Punt5–24
ARIQ3 6:2655Turnover5–24
HOUQ3 4:2146Punt5–24
ARIQ3 2:193-4Punt5–24
HOUQ3 0:3545Turnover on downs5–24
ARIQ4 14:15763Touchdown5–31
HOUQ4 10:2232Punt5–31
ARIQ4 9:02626Punt5–31
HOUQ4 4:39933Turnover on downs5–31
ARIQ4 2:57314End of half5–31

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Davis Mills23/3213500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Johnson7253.60
Mark Ingram691.50
Phillip Lindsay284.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nico Collins25280
David Johnson56270
Brandin Cooks57210
Mark Ingram33180
Danny Amendola35170
Jordan Akins22130
Pharaoh Brown33110

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray20/2826131

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chase Edmonds15815.40
James Conner10646.41
Kyler Murray6101.70
Jonathan Ward177.00
Eno Benjamin273.50
Zach Ertz144.00
Colt McCoy2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Green33660
Zach Ertz35661
DeAndre Hopkins79531
Christian Kirk45501
Rondale Moore23170
Chase Edmonds1390

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +20.53.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%2.2%1.8%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

1.78%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.4%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.55
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.26