2013 · Week 10

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Case Keenum

24·27

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Carson Palmer

University of Phoenix Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

ARI -4

Total

41.5

Model margin

+5.4est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapCardinals
  • -0.109EPA / play-0.020
  • 40.7%Success rate41.6%
  • -0.116EPA / dropback+0.035
  • -0.099EPA / rush-0.109
  • 8.7%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -3.08CPOE+3.74
  • 36.4%Third-down rate35.3%
  • 45.4%Red-zone TD rate59.3%
  • 1.07Points / drive1.71
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 4–3 since 1999

HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.7 points. ARI are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15ARI @ HOU20–40HOU
2023 · W11ARI @ HOU16–21HOU
2021 · W7HOU @ ARI5–31ARI
2017 · W11ARI @ HOU21–31HOU
2009 · W5HOU @ ARI21–28ARI
2005 · W15ARI @ HOU19–30HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–ARI
HOUQ1 15:001-9Opp touchdown0–7
HOUQ1 14:46314Punt0–7
ARIQ1 12:4342Punt0–7
HOUQ1 10:47849Touchdown7–7
ARIQ1 5:55639Punt7–7
HOUQ1 3:1234Punt7–7
ARIQ1 1:25663Touchdown7–14
HOUQ2 13:57980Touchdown14–14
ARIQ2 9:3725Turnover14–14
HOUQ2 8:40515Field goal17–14
ARIQ2 6:31637Punt17–14
HOUQ2 3:28941Punt17–14
ARIQ2 0:492-6Turnover17–14
HOUQ2 0:3730Missed field goal17–14
ARIQ3 15:0036Punt17–14
HOUQ3 13:3446Punt17–14
ARIQ3 11:181038Field goal17–17
HOUQ3 6:063-6Punt17–17
ARIQ3 4:25954Field goal17–20
HOUQ3 0:026-4Punt17–20
ARIQ4 11:30967Touchdown17–27
HOUQ4 6:42622Punt17–27
ARIQ4 4:5310Turnover17–27
HOUQ4 4:4635Touchdown24–27
ARIQ4 4:34629Punt24–27
HOUQ4 2:06518Turnover on downs24–27
ARIQ4 1:2500End of half24–27

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Case Keenum22/4320130

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ben Tate15563.70
Case Keenum2136.50
Dennis Johnson471.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins611690
Andre Johnson512372
DeVier Posey36340
Garrett Graham23180
Dennis Johnson11140
Ben Tate3580
Ryan Griffin1121
Lestar Jean0100

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer20/3224121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Andre Ellington11555.00
Rashard Mendenhall13423.20
Stepfan Taylor263.00
Carson Palmer2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Andre Roberts58721
Rob Housler45571
Michael Floyd23310
Larry Fitzgerald35230
Andre Ellington24180
Jake Ballard11150
Rashard Mendenhall1190
Jim Dray1290
Jaron Brown1270

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.4%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.41
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.06
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+5.39