Closing spread
ARI -4
Total
41.5
Model margin
+5.4est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.109EPA / play-0.020
- 40.7%Success rate41.6%
- -0.116EPA / dropback+0.035
- -0.099EPA / rush-0.109
- 8.7%Explosive rate8.5%
- -3.08CPOE+3.74
- 36.4%Third-down rate35.3%
- 45.4%Red-zone TD rate59.3%
- 1.07Points / drive1.71
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 4–3 since 1999
HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.7 points. ARI are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Case Keenum | 22/43 | 201 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Tate | 15 | 56 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Case Keenum | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Dennis Johnson | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 6 | 11 | 69 | 0 |
| Andre Johnson | 5 | 12 | 37 | 2 |
| DeVier Posey | 3 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Garrett Graham | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Dennis Johnson | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Ben Tate | 3 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Lestar Jean | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 20/32 | 241 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Ellington | 11 | 55 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 13 | 42 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Stepfan Taylor | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Roberts | 5 | 8 | 72 | 1 |
| Rob Housler | 4 | 5 | 57 | 1 |
| Michael Floyd | 2 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 3 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Andre Ellington | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Jake Ballard | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Jim Dray | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Jaron Brown | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.4%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.41
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.06
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+5.39