2017 · Week 11

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Blaine Gabbert

21·31

Texans

Houston

QB Tom Savage

NRG Stadium · closed · astroturf

Closing spread

HOU -2.5

Total

38

Model margin

+2.0est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapTexans
  • -0.129EPA / play-0.053
  • 38.8%Success rate40.4%
  • -0.086EPA / dropback-0.004
  • -0.207EPA / rush-0.126
  • 7.2%Explosive rate7.9%
  • -4.25CPOE-2.95
  • 35.7%Third-down rate36.6%
  • 52.2%Red-zone TD rate63.3%
  • 1.20Points / drive1.47
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 4–3 since 1999

HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.7 points. HOU are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15ARI @ HOU20–40HOU
2023 · W11ARI @ HOU16–21HOU
2021 · W7HOU @ ARI5–31ARI
2013 · W10HOU @ ARI24–27ARI
2009 · W5HOU @ ARI21–28ARI
2005 · W15ARI @ HOU19–30HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–HOU
ARIQ1 15:00837Punt0–0
HOUQ1 10:50414Punt0–0
ARIQ1 8:14413Punt0–0
HOUQ1 6:101462Touchdown0–7
ARIQ2 14:12745Punt0–7
ARIQ2 9:0910Punt0–7
HOUQ2 8:522-2Turnover0–7
ARIQ2 8:07217Touchdown7–7
HOUQ2 7:203-1Punt7–7
ARIQ2 6:1536Punt7–7
HOUQ2 4:27412Turnover7–7
ARIQ2 2:22215Touchdown14–7
HOUQ2 1:53854Field goal14–10
ARIQ2 0:0500End of half14–10
HOUQ3 15:00774Touchdown14–17
ARIQ3 11:0237Punt14–17
HOUQ3 9:1833Punt14–17
ARIQ3 8:26851Touchdown21–17
HOUQ3 4:411275Touchdown21–24
ARIQ4 13:1343Punt21–24
HOUQ4 12:05622Punt21–24
ARIQ4 8:36521Turnover on downs21–30
HOUQ4 6:26134Touchdown21–31
ARIQ4 6:19517Turnover21–31
HOUQ4 4:4338Punt21–31
ARIQ4 2:57540Turnover21–31
HOUQ4 1:5832Punt21–31
ARIQ4 0:09120End of half21–31

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blaine Gabbert22/3425732

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson14261.90
Blaine Gabbert3134.30
Kerwynn Williams199.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Larry Fitzgerald910911
Ricky Seals-Jones35542
D.J. Foster22260
Jaron Brown13220
John Brown36180
J.J. Nelson13140
Adrian Peterson11130
Jermaine Gresham11100
Kerwynn Williams1290
Brittan Golden0100

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Savage22/3223021

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Onta Foreman10656.52
Lamar Miller22612.80
Bruce Ellington155.00
Tom Savage133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins49761
Bruce Ellington67630
Lamar Miller45221
Stephen Anderson13220
C.J. Fiedorowicz22180
D'Onta Foreman33150
Braxton Miller23140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

7.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.4%

Expected total

42.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.49
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.97
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+1.99