Closing spread
HOU -2.5
Total
38
Model margin
+2.0est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.129EPA / play-0.053
- 38.8%Success rate40.4%
- -0.086EPA / dropback-0.004
- -0.207EPA / rush-0.126
- 7.2%Explosive rate7.9%
- -4.25CPOE-2.95
- 35.7%Third-down rate36.6%
- 52.2%Red-zone TD rate63.3%
- 1.20Points / drive1.47
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 4–3 since 1999
HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.7 points. HOU are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaine Gabbert | 22/34 | 257 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 14 | 26 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Kerwynn Williams | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Fitzgerald | 9 | 10 | 91 | 1 |
| Ricky Seals-Jones | 3 | 5 | 54 | 2 |
| D.J. Foster | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Jaron Brown | 1 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| John Brown | 3 | 6 | 18 | 0 |
| J.J. Nelson | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Kerwynn Williams | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Brittan Golden | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Savage | 22/32 | 230 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Onta Foreman | 10 | 65 | 6.5 | 2 |
| Lamar Miller | 22 | 61 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Bruce Ellington | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Tom Savage | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 4 | 9 | 76 | 1 |
| Bruce Ellington | 6 | 7 | 63 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 4 | 5 | 22 | 1 |
| Stephen Anderson | 1 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| C.J. Fiedorowicz | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Braxton Miller | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.4%
Expected total
42.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.49
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+2.97
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+1.99