2023 · Week 11

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

16·21

Texans

Houston

QB C.J. Stroud

NRG Stadium · closed · astroturf

Closing spread

HOU -5.5

Total

48

Model margin

+3.5est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapTexans
  • -0.055EPA / play-0.023
  • 41.0%Success rate41.4%
  • -0.082EPA / dropback+0.063
  • -0.014EPA / rush-0.164
  • 9.3%Explosive rate9.8%
  • -2.77CPOE-1.53
  • 39.6%Third-down rate37.7%
  • 62.4%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
  • 1.88Points / drive1.91
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 4–3 since 1999

HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.7 points. HOU are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15ARI @ HOU20–40HOU
2021 · W7HOU @ ARI5–31ARI
2017 · W11ARI @ HOU21–31HOU
2013 · W10HOU @ ARI24–27ARI
2009 · W5HOU @ ARI21–28ARI
2005 · W15ARI @ HOU19–30HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–HOU
ARIQ1 15:00470Touchdown7–0
HOUQ1 13:281160Turnover on downs7–0
ARIQ1 9:2736Punt7–0
HOUQ1 7:45561Touchdown7–7
ARIQ1 5:48846Field goal10–7
HOUQ1 1:211075Touchdown10–14
ARIQ2 11:2010Turnover10–14
HOUQ2 11:121063Turnover10–14
ARIQ2 6:1063Punt10–14
HOUQ2 2:15674Touchdown10–21
ARIQ2 0:26319End of half10–21
HOUQ3 15:00945Missed field goal10–21
ARIQ3 9:151253Touchdown16–21
HOUQ3 2:523-8Punt16–21
ARIQ3 1:20847Turnover on downs16–21
HOUQ4 12:4839Punt16–21
HOUQ4 10:37412Turnover16–21
ARIQ4 9:30516Turnover on downs16–21
HOUQ4 7:18529Turnover16–21
ARIQ4 4:581059Turnover on downs16–21
HOUQ4 0:3000End of half16–21

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray20/3021411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Conner14624.40
Kyler Murray7517.31
Tony Jones11010.00
Rondale Moore263.00
Marquise Brown1-6-6.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Dortch68760
Rondale Moore11481
Trey McBride57430
Marquise Brown25180
Geoff Swaim22150
Tony Jones11110
Elijah Higgins1220
James Conner2310

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
C.J. Stroud27/3733623
Davis Mills1/1200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devin Singletary221125.11
Mike Boone100.00
C.J. Stroud1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tank Dell8101491
Nico Collins711650
Robert Woods58440
Dalton Schultz23321
Steven Sims22250
John Metchie III11120
Devin Singletary2260
Mike Boone1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

3.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.6%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.84
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.55