Closing spread
HOU -5.5
Total
48
Model margin
+3.5est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.055EPA / play-0.023
- 41.0%Success rate41.4%
- -0.082EPA / dropback+0.063
- -0.014EPA / rush-0.164
- 9.3%Explosive rate9.8%
- -2.77CPOE-1.53
- 39.6%Third-down rate37.7%
- 62.4%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
- 1.88Points / drive1.91
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 4–3 since 1999
HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.7 points. HOU are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 20/30 | 214 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 14 | 62 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Kyler Murray | 7 | 51 | 7.3 | 1 |
| Tony Jones | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Rondale Moore | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Marquise Brown | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Dortch | 6 | 8 | 76 | 0 |
| Rondale Moore | 1 | 1 | 48 | 1 |
| Trey McBride | 5 | 7 | 43 | 0 |
| Marquise Brown | 2 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Geoff Swaim | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Tony Jones | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Elijah Higgins | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| James Conner | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 27/37 | 336 | 2 | 3 |
| Davis Mills | 1/1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Singletary | 22 | 112 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Mike Boone | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| C.J. Stroud | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tank Dell | 8 | 10 | 149 | 1 |
| Nico Collins | 7 | 11 | 65 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 5 | 8 | 44 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz | 2 | 3 | 32 | 1 |
| Steven Sims | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| John Metchie III | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Mike Boone | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
3.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.6%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.84
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.55