Closing spread
SEA -7.5
Total
45
Model margin
-3.2est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.156EPA / play-0.113
- 49.3%Success rate40.6%
- +0.205EPA / dropback-0.080
- +0.100EPA / rush-0.171
- 11.2%Explosive rate6.1%
- 40.1%Third-down rate34.5%
- 78.4%Red-zone TD rate51.6%
- 2.39Points / drive1.17
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.5%
- -0.046EPA / play allowed+0.045
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 4–3 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47 points. TEN are 5-1-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SEA–TEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 70 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| TEN | Q1 11:35 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 7–0 |
| SEA | Q1 8:54 | 6 | 79 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| TEN | Q1 5:54 | 4 | 6 | Punt | 14–0 |
| SEA | Q1 4:15 | 9 | 48 | Missed field goal | 14–0 |
| TEN | Q2 13:48 | 13 | 81 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| SEA | Q2 6:05 | 6 | 24 | Punt | 14–7 |
| TEN | Q2 2:18 | 11 | 69 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| SEA | Q2 0:04 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 14–14 |
| TEN | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 78 | Touchdown | 14–21 |
| SEA | Q3 10:55 | 5 | 26 | Punt | 14–21 |
| TEN | Q3 8:34 | 6 | 60 | Field goal | 14–24 |
| SEA | Q3 6:14 | 3 | 83 | Touchdown | 21–24 |
| TEN | Q3 4:51 | 11 | 74 | Turnover on downs | 21–24 |
| SEA | Q4 14:53 | 13 | 93 | Touchdown | 28–24 |
| TEN | Q4 8:59 | 9 | 31 | Turnover on downs | 28–24 |
| SEA | Q4 5:03 | 7 | 40 | End of half | 28–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 21/27 | 285 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 26 | 172 | 6.6 | 1 |
| Darrell Jackson | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 5 | 1 | 0.2 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 23/38 | 310 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Brown | 20 | 56 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Jarrett Payton | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Drew Bennett | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
4.80%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
40.6%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.74
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.18