2013 · Week 6

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

13·20

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

CenturyLink Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 51°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

SEA -11

Total

42

Model margin

+5.5est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

1.6%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapSeahawks
  • +0.020EPA / play+0.059
  • 42.3%Success rate44.6%
  • +0.116EPA / dropback+0.190
  • -0.124EPA / rush-0.101
  • 7.7%Explosive rate10.9%
  • +1.14CPOE+5.19
  • 41.0%Third-down rate38.4%
  • 63.4%Red-zone TD rate61.9%
  • 1.79Points / drive2.17
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 4–3 since 1999

SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47 points. SEA are 1-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W12SEA @ TEN30–24SEA
2023 · W16SEA @ TEN20–17SEA
2021 · W2TEN @ SEA33–30TEN
2017 · W3SEA @ TEN27–33TEN
2009 · W17TEN @ SEA17–13TEN
2005 · W15SEA @ TEN28–24SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–SEA
TENQ1 15:00513Punt0–0
SEAQ1 12:00419Punt0–0
TENQ1 9:59857Field goal3–0
SEAQ1 5:16420Punt3–0
TENQ1 3:1310Turnover3–0
SEAQ1 3:05410Punt3–0
TENQ1 0:31929Punt3–0
SEAQ2 9:231274Touchdown3–7
TENQ2 2:41722Turnover on downs3–7
SEAQ2 0:54530Opp touchdown10–7
SEAQ3 15:00726Turnover10–7
TENQ3 11:5532Punt10–7
SEAQ3 10:531180Field goal10–10
TENQ3 4:27631Punt10–10
SEAQ4 15:00671Field goal10–13
TENQ4 11:2310Turnover10–13
SEAQ4 11:15759Touchdown10–20
TENQ4 7:331369Field goal13–20
SEAQ4 2:18518End of half13–20

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick17/2917102

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ryan Fitzpatrick6335.50
Chris Johnson12332.80
Darius Reynaud100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kendall Wright58690
Delanie Walker45290
Damian Williams25220
Chris Johnson34210
Nate Washington14150
Justin Hunter1180
Kenny Britt1170

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson23/3125700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marshawn Lynch21773.72
Russell Wilson10616.10
Robert Turbin11313.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marshawn Lynch45780
Doug Baldwin44480
Sidney Rice24350
Golden Tate57330
Robert Turbin22230
Jermaine Kearse33170
Luke Willson23170
Kellen Davis0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +116.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

1.58%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.6%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.99
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.48