Closing spread
SEA -11
Total
42
Model margin
+5.5est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
1.6%est.
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.020EPA / play+0.059
- 42.3%Success rate44.6%
- +0.116EPA / dropback+0.190
- -0.124EPA / rush-0.101
- 7.7%Explosive rate10.9%
- +1.14CPOE+5.19
- 41.0%Third-down rate38.4%
- 63.4%Red-zone TD rate61.9%
- 1.79Points / drive2.17
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 4–3 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47 points. SEA are 1-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 17/29 | 171 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 6 | 33 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 12 | 33 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Darius Reynaud | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendall Wright | 5 | 8 | 69 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 4 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Damian Williams | 2 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Nate Washington | 1 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Justin Hunter | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Kenny Britt | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 23/31 | 257 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 21 | 77 | 3.7 | 2 |
| Russell Wilson | 10 | 61 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 4 | 5 | 78 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 4 | 4 | 48 | 0 |
| Sidney Rice | 2 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 5 | 7 | 33 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Luke Willson | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Kellen Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
1.58%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.6%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.99
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.48