Closing spread
SEA -12.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
-4.4est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.036EPA / play-0.148
- 46.6%Success rate37.9%
- +0.137EPA / dropback-0.165
- -0.076EPA / rush-0.117
- 10.7%Explosive rate7.3%
- +4.54CPOE-3.50
- 40.9%Third-down rate32.0%
- 57.0%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
- 2.22Points / drive1.36
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 4–3 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47 points. TEN are 5-1-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 16/26 | 244 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | 11 | 71 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 6 | 35 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 8 | 10 | 167 | 2 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 2 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| AJ Barner | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Elijah Arroyo | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Ward | 28/42 | 256 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Ward | 6 | 37 | 6.2 | 1 |
| Tony Pollard | 11 | 20 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Tyjae Spears | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Julius Chestnut | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gunnar Helm | 6 | 7 | 51 | 0 |
| Chimere Dike | 5 | 7 | 44 | 1 |
| James Proche | 3 | 3 | 42 | 0 |
| Chig Okonkwo | 3 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Xavier Restrepo | 2 | 6 | 26 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 4 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Tyjae Spears | 4 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
1.26%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
37.4%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-6.11
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-4.40