Closing spread
TEN -6
Total
45
Model margin
-0.7est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.010EPA / play-0.107
- 40.8%Success rate40.9%
- +0.042EPA / dropback-0.082
- -0.026EPA / rush-0.150
- 9.0%Explosive rate7.2%
- -2.63CPOE-1.58
- 41.0%Third-down rate34.0%
- 60.6%Red-zone TD rate46.1%
- 1.79Points / drive1.38
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 4–3 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47 points. SEA are 1-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Young | 17/28 | 171 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 36 | 134 | 3.7 | 2 |
| LenDale White | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Vince Young | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Washington | 6 | 8 | 83 | 0 |
| Justin Gage | 4 | 7 | 38 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 3 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
| Bo Scaife | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Kenny Britt | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 15/30 | 175 | 1 | 1 |
| Seneca Wallace | 1/1 | 17 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Forsett | 10 | 74 | 7.4 | 0 |
| Julius Jones | 14 | 61 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deion Branch | 4 | 8 | 77 | 0 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 3 | 6 | 66 | 0 |
| John Carlson | 2 | 3 | 14 | 1 |
| Justin Forsett | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Justin Griffith | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Ben Obomanu | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Julius Jones | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Louis Rankin | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Deon Butler | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.1%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.06
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.16
- Expected margin-0.74