2009 · Week 17

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Vince Young

17·13

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Matt Hasselbeck

Qwest Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 46°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

TEN -6

Total

45

Model margin

-0.7est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

3.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapSeahawks
  • +0.010EPA / play-0.107
  • 40.8%Success rate40.9%
  • +0.042EPA / dropback-0.082
  • -0.026EPA / rush-0.150
  • 9.0%Explosive rate7.2%
  • -2.63CPOE-1.58
  • 41.0%Third-down rate34.0%
  • 60.6%Red-zone TD rate46.1%
  • 1.79Points / drive1.38
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 4–3 since 1999

SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47 points. SEA are 1-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W12SEA @ TEN30–24SEA
2023 · W16SEA @ TEN20–17SEA
2021 · W2TEN @ SEA33–30TEN
2017 · W3SEA @ TEN27–33TEN
2013 · W6TEN @ SEA13–20SEA
2005 · W15SEA @ TEN28–24SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–SEA
TENQ1 15:001382Touchdown7–0
SEAQ1 7:563-4Punt7–0
TENQ1 6:4123Turnover7–0
SEAQ1 5:5137Punt7–0
TENQ1 3:4332Punt7–0
SEAQ1 2:1279Punt7–0
TENQ2 14:14420Punt7–0
SEAQ2 11:59573Touchdown7–7
TENQ2 9:4128Punt7–7
TENQ2 8:1010Punt7–7
TENQ2 8:0700Punt7–7
SEAQ2 7:58850Punt7–7
TENQ2 3:521272Missed field goal7–7
SEAQ2 0:0300End of half7–7
SEAQ3 15:00753Field goal7–10
TENQ3 11:291350Field goal10–10
SEAQ3 4:40818Punt10–10
TENQ3 1:0829Turnover10–10
SEAQ3 0:25849Field goal10–13
TENQ4 12:29727Punt10–13
SEAQ4 8:2932Punt10–13
TENQ4 6:59533Touchdown17–13
SEAQ4 4:331053Turnover17–13
TENQ4 1:1200End of half17–13

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Vince Young17/2817101

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Johnson361343.72
LenDale White111.00
Vince Young2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nate Washington68830
Justin Gage47380
Chris Johnson36200
Bo Scaife23140
Kenny Britt11140

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck15/3017511
Seneca Wallace1/11700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justin Forsett10747.40
Julius Jones14614.40
Matt Hasselbeck252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Deion Branch48770
T.J. Houshmandzadeh36660
John Carlson23141
Justin Forsett23140
Justin Griffith2290
Ben Obomanu1170
Julius Jones1230
Louis Rankin1120
Deon Butler0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -62.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

2.98%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.1%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.06
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.16
  • Expected margin-0.74