Closing spread
TEN -2
Total
42
Model margin
+1.2est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Titans
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.023EPA / play-0.069
- 41.3%Success rate42.6%
- +0.060EPA / dropback-0.057
- -0.192EPA / rush-0.086
- 9.4%Explosive rate7.7%
- +4.52CPOE+0.43
- 37.4%Third-down rate36.0%
- 63.6%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
- 1.68Points / drive1.73
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 4–3 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47 points. TEN are 5-1-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 29/49 | 373 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Carson | 11 | 34 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 7 | 26 | 3.7 | 0 |
| C.J. Prosise | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Baldwin | 10 | 15 | 105 | 1 |
| Jimmy Graham | 7 | 11 | 72 | 0 |
| C.J. Prosise | 3 | 5 | 65 | 0 |
| Luke Willson | 3 | 4 | 53 | 1 |
| Paul Richardson | 2 | 7 | 30 | 1 |
| Tyler Lockett | 2 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Chris Carson | 2 | 2 | 18 | 1 |
| Amara Darboh | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 20/32 | 225 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 14 | 115 | 8.2 | 1 |
| Derrick Henry | 13 | 54 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 7 | 27 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Taywan Taylor | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rishard Matthews | 6 | 10 | 87 | 1 |
| Eric Decker | 4 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 4 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 1 | 2 | 24 | 1 |
| Taywan Taylor | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Phillip Supernaw | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Eric Weems | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.2%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.57
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.17