2017 · Week 3

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

27·33

Titans

Tennessee

QB Marcus Mariota

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 88°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

TEN -2

Total

42

Model margin

+1.2est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapTitans
  • -0.023EPA / play-0.069
  • 41.3%Success rate42.6%
  • +0.060EPA / dropback-0.057
  • -0.192EPA / rush-0.086
  • 9.4%Explosive rate7.7%
  • +4.52CPOE+0.43
  • 37.4%Third-down rate36.0%
  • 63.6%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
  • 1.68Points / drive1.73
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 4–3 since 1999

SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47 points. TEN are 5-1-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W12SEA @ TEN30–24SEA
2023 · W16SEA @ TEN20–17SEA
2021 · W2TEN @ SEA33–30TEN
2013 · W6TEN @ SEA13–20SEA
2009 · W17TEN @ SEA17–13TEN
2005 · W15SEA @ TEN28–24SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–TEN
TENQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
SEAQ1 13:3638Punt0–0
TENQ1 12:3735Punt0–0
SEAQ1 11:0834Punt0–0
TENQ1 9:4630Punt0–0
SEAQ1 9:20624Punt0–0
TENQ1 7:0933Punt0–0
SEAQ1 5:3839Punt0–0
TENQ1 3:431345Field goal0–3
SEAQ2 13:2330Punt0–3
TENQ2 12:211244Field goal0–6
SEAQ2 5:513-4Punt0–6
TENQ2 3:2936Punt0–6
SEAQ2 2:04586Touchdown7–6
TENQ2 1:15647Field goal7–9
SEAQ3 15:00975Touchdown14–9
TENQ3 10:09570Touchdown14–16
SEAQ3 7:3431Punt14–16
TENQ3 6:30649Touchdown14–23
SEAQ3 3:50515Punt14–29
TENQ3 1:49175Touchdown14–30
SEAQ3 1:34875Touchdown20–30
TENQ4 13:59758Field goal20–33
SEAQ4 10:00964Turnover on downs20–33
TENQ4 7:1133Punt20–33
SEAQ4 5:091276Touchdown27–33
TENQ4 1:5037End of half27–33

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson29/4937340

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Carson11343.10
Russell Wilson7263.70
C.J. Prosise492.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Doug Baldwin10151051
Jimmy Graham711720
C.J. Prosise35650
Luke Willson34531
Paul Richardson27301
Tyler Lockett23300
Chris Carson22181
Amara Darboh0100

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota20/3222520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeMarco Murray141158.21
Derrick Henry13544.20
Marcus Mariota7273.90
Taywan Taylor1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rishard Matthews610871
Eric Decker45490
Delanie Walker46310
Jonnu Smith12241
Taywan Taylor23160
Derrick Henry11100
DeMarco Murray1250
Phillip Supernaw1130
Eric Weems0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +24.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.2%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.57
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.17