2021 · Week 2

Final / OT

Titans

Tennessee

QB Ryan Tannehill

33·30

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

Lumen Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 62°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

SEA -6.5

Total

53.5

Model margin

+1.8est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapSeahawks
  • +0.025EPA / play+0.042
  • 44.7%Success rate43.8%
  • +0.092EPA / dropback+0.053
  • -0.054EPA / rush+0.026
  • 7.8%Explosive rate10.1%
  • +2.33CPOE+4.08
  • 43.8%Third-down rate37.3%
  • 66.6%Red-zone TD rate69.7%
  • 2.15Points / drive2.12
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 4–3 since 1999

SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47 points. SEA are 1-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W12SEA @ TEN30–24SEA
2023 · W16SEA @ TEN20–17SEA
2017 · W3SEA @ TEN27–33TEN
2013 · W6TEN @ SEA13–20SEA
2009 · W17TEN @ SEA17–13TEN
2005 · W15SEA @ TEN28–24SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–SEA
SEAQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
TENQ1 13:4039Punt0–0
SEAQ1 11:23457Field goal0–3
TENQ1 9:251265Field goal3–3
SEAQ1 2:45913Punt3–3
TENQ2 12:47773Field goal6–3
SEAQ2 8:18383Touchdown6–10
TENQ2 6:342-10Turnover6–10
SEAQ2 5:4826Touchdown6–17
TENQ2 5:20851Field goal9–17
SEAQ2 1:05865Touchdown9–24
TENQ2 0:1700End of half9–24
TENQ3 15:00961Touchdown16–24
SEAQ3 10:37841Punt16–24
TENQ3 5:411166Missed field goal16–24
SEAQ4 15:00476Touchdown16–30
TENQ4 13:06275Touchdown23–30
SEAQ4 12:1738Punt23–30
TENQ4 10:431038Turnover on downs23–30
SEAQ4 5:4639Punt23–30
TENQ4 4:131378Touchdown30–30
SEAQ4 0:29442End of half30–30
TENOT66Punt30–30
SEAOT3-12Punt30–30
TENOT421Field goal33–30

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill27/4034700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry351825.23
Ryan Tannehill4276.80
Jeremy McNichols133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones681280
Derrick Henry66550
MyCole Pruitt33430
A.J. Brown39430
Jeremy McNichols33260
Chester Rogers25220
Tommy Hudson12140
Geoff Swaim22100
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine1160

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson22/3134320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Carson13312.42
Alex Collins12525.00
Russell Wilson3165.30
Freddie Swain155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Lockett8111781
Freddie Swain55951
DK Metcalf611530
Travis Homer22140
Gerald Everett1230

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.54.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

4.65%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.8%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.05
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.76