Closing spread
SEA -6.5
Total
53.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.025EPA / play+0.042
- 44.7%Success rate43.8%
- +0.092EPA / dropback+0.053
- -0.054EPA / rush+0.026
- 7.8%Explosive rate10.1%
- +2.33CPOE+4.08
- 43.8%Third-down rate37.3%
- 66.6%Red-zone TD rate69.7%
- 2.15Points / drive2.12
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 4–3 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47 points. SEA are 1-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 27/40 | 347 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 35 | 182 | 5.2 | 3 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 6 | 8 | 128 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 6 | 6 | 55 | 0 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 3 | 3 | 43 | 0 |
| A.J. Brown | 3 | 9 | 43 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Chester Rogers | 2 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Tommy Hudson | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Geoff Swaim | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 22/31 | 343 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Carson | 13 | 31 | 2.4 | 2 |
| Alex Collins | 1 | 25 | 25.0 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Freddie Swain | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lockett | 8 | 11 | 178 | 1 |
| Freddie Swain | 5 | 5 | 95 | 1 |
| DK Metcalf | 6 | 11 | 53 | 0 |
| Travis Homer | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
4.65%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.8%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.05
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.76