Closing spread
SEA -3
Total
42
Model margin
+1.5est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.032EPA / play-0.023
- 44.6%Success rate40.9%
- +0.094EPA / dropback+0.014
- -0.087EPA / rush-0.078
- 9.6%Explosive rate9.0%
- +1.54CPOE+0.48
- 36.3%Third-down rate34.1%
- 49.3%Red-zone TD rate49.4%
- 2.00Points / drive1.57
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 4–3 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47 points. TEN are 5-1-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 25/36 | 227 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | 16 | 54 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lockett | 8 | 11 | 81 | 0 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 6 | 7 | 61 | 0 |
| DK Metcalf | 4 | 6 | 56 | 1 |
| Colby Parkinson | 3 | 4 | 17 | 1 |
| Jake Bobo | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Will Dissly | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 1 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 18/26 | 152 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 1/1 | 12 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 19 | 88 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Tyjae Spears | 9 | 40 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 2 | 37 | 18.5 | 0 |
| Treylon Burks | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chig Okonkwo | 6 | 7 | 63 | 1 |
| Tyjae Spears | 5 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Treylon Burks | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Mason Kinsey | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Colton Dowell | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
7.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.1%
Expected total
46.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.28
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.58
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.48