2023 · Week 16

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Geno Smith

20·17

Titans

Tennessee

QB Ryan Tannehill

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 61°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

SEA -3

Total

42

Model margin

+1.5est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

7.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapTitans
  • +0.032EPA / play-0.023
  • 44.6%Success rate40.9%
  • +0.094EPA / dropback+0.014
  • -0.087EPA / rush-0.078
  • 9.6%Explosive rate9.0%
  • +1.54CPOE+0.48
  • 36.3%Third-down rate34.1%
  • 49.3%Red-zone TD rate49.4%
  • 2.00Points / drive1.57
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 4–3 since 1999

SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47 points. TEN are 5-1-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W12SEA @ TEN30–24SEA
2021 · W2TEN @ SEA33–30TEN
2017 · W3SEA @ TEN27–33TEN
2013 · W6TEN @ SEA13–20SEA
2009 · W17TEN @ SEA17–13TEN
2005 · W15SEA @ TEN28–24SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–TEN
TENQ1 15:003-5Punt0–0
SEAQ1 13:00915Punt0–0
TENQ1 9:02945Punt0–0
SEAQ1 4:353-1Punt0–0
TENQ1 2:24742Touchdown0–7
SEAQ2 14:14660Field goal3–7
TENQ2 10:481165Field goal3–10
SEAQ2 3:18919Punt3–10
TENQ2 0:48523End of half3–10
SEAQ3 15:00946Field goal6–10
TENQ3 9:53937Punt6–10
SEAQ3 3:431181Touchdown13–10
TENQ4 12:101662Touchdown13–17
SEAQ4 3:211553Touchdown20–17
TENQ4 0:57518End of half20–17

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith25/3622720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenneth Walker III16543.40
Geno Smith122.00
DeeJay Dallas122.00
Zach Charbonnet200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Lockett811810
Jaxon Smith-Njigba67610
DK Metcalf46561
Colby Parkinson34171
Jake Bobo1380
Will Dissly1160
Kenneth Walker III1220
Zach Charbonnet12-40

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill18/2615200
Derrick Henry1/11210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry19884.61
Tyjae Spears9404.40
Ryan Tannehill23718.50
Treylon Burks1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chig Okonkwo67631
Tyjae Spears56270
Treylon Burks23250
DeAndre Hopkins24200
Derrick Henry11110
Chris Moore1290
Mason Kinsey1160
Colton Dowell1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

7.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.1%

Expected total

46.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.28
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.58
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+1.48