Closing spread
SEA -7
Total
47
Model margin
+3.6est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.188EPA / play+0.156
- 51.2%Success rate49.3%
- +0.339EPA / dropback+0.205
- -0.007EPA / rush+0.100
- 8.0%Explosive rate11.2%
- 50.1%Third-down rate40.1%
- 63.1%Red-zone TD rate78.4%
- 2.60Points / drive2.39
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.4%
- -0.061EPA / play allowed-0.046
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 4–3 since 1999
SEA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51 points. SEA are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | IND–SEA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | Q1 15:00 | 13 | 67 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| SEA | Q1 7:51 | 5 | 46 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| IND | Q1 5:42 | 8 | 66 | Missed field goal | 3–7 |
| SEA | Q1 1:36 | 11 | 83 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| IND | Q2 11:46 | 9 | 31 | Punt | 3–14 |
| SEA | Q2 6:42 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 3–14 |
| IND | Q2 3:44 | 8 | 45 | Field goal | 6–14 |
| SEA | Q2 0:37 | 4 | 30 | Missed field goal | 6–14 |
| SEA | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 77 | Touchdown | 6–21 |
| IND | Q3 10:57 | 4 | 22 | Punt | 6–21 |
| SEA | Q3 7:51 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 6–21 |
| IND | Q3 5:47 | 6 | 12 | Punt | 6–21 |
| SEA | Q3 1:58 | 8 | 59 | Punt | 6–21 |
| IND | Q4 12:34 | 9 | 49 | Turnover on downs | 6–21 |
| SEA | Q4 8:38 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 6–21 |
| IND | Q4 6:39 | 5 | 20 | Turnover | 6–21 |
| SEA | Q4 5:27 | 3 | 17 | Touchdown | 6–28 |
| IND | Q4 3:58 | 7 | 76 | Touchdown | 13–28 |
| SEA | Q4 1:59 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 13–28 |
| IND | Q4 0:09 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 13–28 |
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Sorgi | 22/31 | 237 | 1 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 9/12 | 116 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 13 | 41 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Jim Sorgi | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| James Mungro | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 5 | -4 | -0.8 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 17/21 | 168 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 21 | 139 | 6.6 | 2 |
| Maurice Morris | 9 | 34 | 3.8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
4.84%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.7%
Expected total
46.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.02
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.58