Closing spread
IND -10
Total
43.5
Model margin
+3.6est.
IND perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.107EPA / play+0.127
- 40.9%Success rate48.9%
- -0.082EPA / dropback+0.241
- -0.150EPA / rush-0.077
- 7.2%Explosive rate9.8%
- -1.58CPOE+4.60
- 34.0%Third-down rate48.9%
- 46.1%Red-zone TD rate73.5%
- 1.38Points / drive2.29
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 4–3 since 1999
SEA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51 points. IND are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seneca Wallace | 33/45 | 257 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Jones | 11 | 25 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Edgerrin James | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Seneca Wallace | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 8 | 11 | 103 | 0 |
| Deion Branch | 6 | 6 | 49 | 0 |
| John Carlson | 5 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Nate Burleson | 4 | 8 | 31 | 0 |
| Julius Jones | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| John Owens | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 3 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Edgerrin James | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Deon Butler | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 31/41 | 353 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 12 | 46 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Donald Brown | 9 | 33 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Clark | 8 | 10 | 80 | 0 |
| Reggie Wayne | 6 | 11 | 74 | 1 |
| Pierre Garcon | 3 | 4 | 71 | 0 |
| Austin Collie | 6 | 7 | 65 | 1 |
| Joseph Addai | 7 | 7 | 50 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Gijon Robinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
3.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.7%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.72
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-2.59
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.62