2009 · Week 4

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Seneca Wallace

17·34

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

Lucas Oil Stadium · open · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -10

Total

43.5

Model margin

+3.6est.

IND perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapColts
  • -0.107EPA / play+0.127
  • 40.9%Success rate48.9%
  • -0.082EPA / dropback+0.241
  • -0.150EPA / rush-0.077
  • 7.2%Explosive rate9.8%
  • -1.58CPOE+4.60
  • 34.0%Third-down rate48.9%
  • 46.1%Red-zone TD rate73.5%
  • 1.38Points / drive2.29
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 4–3 since 1999

SEA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51 points. IND are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15IND @ SEA16–18SEA
2021 · W1SEA @ IND28–16SEA
2017 · W4IND @ SEA18–46SEA
2013 · W5SEA @ IND28–34IND
2005 · W16IND @ SEA13–28SEA
2000 · W7IND @ SEA37–24IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–IND
SEAQ1 15:00620Punt0–0
INDQ1 11:471080Touchdown0–7
SEAQ1 6:09814Punt0–7
INDQ1 1:0533Punt0–7
SEAQ2 14:511038Punt0–7
INDQ2 9:30885Touchdown0–14
SEAQ2 5:291262Field goal3–14
INDQ2 1:221093Touchdown3–21
SEAQ2 0:0300End of half3–21
INDQ3 15:0014100Touchdown3–28
SEAQ3 8:0247Punt3–28
INDQ3 6:00614Turnover3–28
SEAQ3 3:31731Turnover3–28
INDQ3 0:52524Punt3–28
SEAQ4 13:203-6Punt3–28
INDQ4 11:58629Field goal3–31
SEAQ4 8:503-6Turnover3–31
INDQ4 8:1434Field goal3–34
SEAQ4 6:581070Touchdown10–34
INDQ4 2:5900Touchdown10–34
SEAQ4 2:56951Touchdown17–34
INDQ4 0:1900End of half17–34

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Seneca Wallace33/4525710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Julius Jones11252.30
Edgerrin James4164.00
Seneca Wallace482.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.J. Houshmandzadeh8111030
Deion Branch66490
John Carlson56390
Nate Burleson48310
Julius Jones33100
John Owens1180
Justin Forsett3480
Edgerrin James1160
Deon Butler0300

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning31/4135321

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joseph Addai12463.81
Donald Brown9333.71
Peyton Manning1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dallas Clark810800
Reggie Wayne611741
Pierre Garcon34710
Austin Collie67651
Joseph Addai77500
Donald Brown11130
Gijon Robinson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +106.8%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

3.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.7%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.72
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.59
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.62