Closing spread
SEA -12.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+3.0est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.107EPA / play-0.023
- 38.7%Success rate41.3%
- -0.102EPA / dropback+0.060
- -0.115EPA / rush-0.192
- 6.7%Explosive rate9.4%
- -4.56CPOE+4.52
- 38.0%Third-down rate37.4%
- 48.0%Red-zone TD rate63.6%
- 1.22Points / drive1.68
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 4–3 since 1999
SEA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51 points. SEA are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 16/29 | 157 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 12 | 46 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 3 | 33 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Matt Jones | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 6 | 8 | 1.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 3 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| Brandon Williams | 1 | 2 | 32 | 0 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 3 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Donte Moncrief | 3 | 3 | 30 | 1 |
| Jack Doyle | 5 | 7 | 27 | 0 |
| Kamar Aiken | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0 |
| Darrell Daniels | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 21/26 | 295 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Lacy | 11 | 52 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Chris Carson | 12 | 42 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 4 | 38 | 9.5 | 1 |
| J.D. McKissic | 4 | 38 | 9.5 | 1 |
| Tyler Lockett | 2 | 24 | 12.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lockett | 4 | 5 | 67 | 0 |
| Paul Richardson | 3 | 3 | 65 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 4 | 6 | 61 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 1 | 1 | 27 | 1 |
| Chris Carson | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Amara Darboh | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Luke Willson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
1.65%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.1%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.25
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.99