2017 · Week 4

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Jacoby Brissett

18·46

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

CenturyLink Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 61°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

SEA -12.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+3.0est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.107EPA / play-0.023
  • 38.7%Success rate41.3%
  • -0.102EPA / dropback+0.060
  • -0.115EPA / rush-0.192
  • 6.7%Explosive rate9.4%
  • -4.56CPOE+4.52
  • 38.0%Third-down rate37.4%
  • 48.0%Red-zone TD rate63.6%
  • 1.22Points / drive1.68
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 4–3 since 1999

SEA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51 points. SEA are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15IND @ SEA16–18SEA
2021 · W1SEA @ IND28–16SEA
2013 · W5SEA @ IND28–34IND
2009 · W4SEA @ IND17–34IND
2005 · W16IND @ SEA13–28SEA
2000 · W7IND @ SEA37–24IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–SEA
INDQ1 15:00618Punt0–0
SEAQ1 12:03638Field goal0–3
INDQ1 8:59549Punt0–3
SEAQ1 4:523-1Safety2–3
INDQ1 3:3337Punt2–3
SEAQ1 2:08735Punt2–3
INDQ2 13:4336Opp touchdown2–10
INDQ2 12:251470Touchdown8–10
SEAQ2 5:25412Turnover8–10
INDQ2 3:34955Touchdown15–10
SEAQ2 0:25356Missed field goal15–10
SEAQ3 15:001374Touchdown15–18
INDQ3 9:2338Punt15–18
SEAQ3 7:57530Turnover15–18
INDQ3 5:4932Field goal18–18
SEAQ3 4:53675Touchdown18–25
INDQ3 2:121-1Opp touchdown18–32
INDQ3 1:5932Punt18–32
SEAQ3 1:02974Touchdown18–39
INDQ4 11:16510Punt18–39
SEAQ4 9:181184Touchdown18–46
INDQ4 2:22411End of half18–46

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jacoby Brissett16/2915711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore12463.80
Jacoby Brissett33311.00
Matt Jones4112.80
Robert Turbin681.31

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Frank Gore33340
Brandon Williams12320
T.Y. Hilton36300
Donte Moncrief33301
Jack Doyle57270
Kamar Aiken1540
Darrell Daniels0200

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson21/2629522

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eddie Lacy11524.70
Chris Carson12423.50
Russell Wilson4389.51
J.D. McKissic4389.51
Tyler Lockett22412.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Lockett45670
Paul Richardson33650
Jimmy Graham46610
Doug Baldwin33350
J.D. McKissic11271
Chris Carson33240
Amara Darboh24100
Luke Willson1161

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.57.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

1.65%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.1%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.25
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.99