2013 · Week 5

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

28·34

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

SEA -3

Total

43.5

Model margin

+0.6est.

IND perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapColts
  • +0.059EPA / play+0.047
  • 44.6%Success rate44.6%
  • +0.190EPA / dropback+0.108
  • -0.101EPA / rush-0.071
  • 10.9%Explosive rate7.4%
  • +5.19CPOE-1.44
  • 38.4%Third-down rate37.8%
  • 61.9%Red-zone TD rate59.0%
  • 2.17Points / drive1.89
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 4–3 since 1999

SEA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51 points. IND are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15IND @ SEA16–18SEA
2021 · W1SEA @ IND28–16SEA
2017 · W4IND @ SEA18–46SEA
2009 · W4SEA @ IND17–34IND
2005 · W16IND @ SEA13–28SEA
2000 · W7IND @ SEA37–24IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–IND
INDQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
SEAQ1 13:53428Field goal3–0
INDQ1 11:4032Punt3–0
SEAQ1 10:28864Touchdown10–0
INDQ1 6:1437Safety12–0
SEAQ1 4:5339Punt12–0
INDQ1 2:45479Touchdown12–7
SEAQ1 1:04735Opp touchdown12–14
SEAQ2 13:061392Touchdown19–14
INDQ2 5:571229Field goal19–17
SEAQ2 0:58739Turnover19–17
SEAQ3 15:00862Field goal22–17
INDQ3 11:18310Turnover22–17
SEAQ3 9:42312Field goal25–17
INDQ3 8:121080Touchdown25–23
SEAQ3 4:16852Field goal28–23
INDQ3 0:351570Touchdown28–31
SEAQ4 8:5538Punt28–31
INDQ4 6:38842Field goal28–34
SEAQ4 1:55522Turnover28–34
INDQ4 1:2300End of half28–34

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson15/3121021

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marshawn Lynch171026.00
Russell Wilson131027.80
Robert Turbin4143.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Doug Baldwin59800
Golden Tate511611
Jermaine Kearse11281
Luke Willson24280
Sidney Rice1480
Marshawn Lynch1250

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck16/2922920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Trent Richardson18563.10
Donald Brown6376.21
Andrew Luck492.30
Darrius Heyward-Bey177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.Y. Hilton561402
Reggie Wayne69650
Coby Fleener23150
Robert Hughes1260
Donald Brown2230
Darrius Heyward-Bey0600
Trent Richardson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

7.28%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.8%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.86
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.63