Closing spread
SEA -3
Total
43.5
Model margin
+0.6est.
IND perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.059EPA / play+0.047
- 44.6%Success rate44.6%
- +0.190EPA / dropback+0.108
- -0.101EPA / rush-0.071
- 10.9%Explosive rate7.4%
- +5.19CPOE-1.44
- 38.4%Third-down rate37.8%
- 61.9%Red-zone TD rate59.0%
- 2.17Points / drive1.89
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 4–3 since 1999
SEA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51 points. IND are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 15/31 | 210 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 17 | 102 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 13 | 102 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Baldwin | 5 | 9 | 80 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 5 | 11 | 61 | 1 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 1 | 1 | 28 | 1 |
| Luke Willson | 2 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Sidney Rice | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 16/29 | 229 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Richardson | 18 | 56 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 6 | 37 | 6.2 | 1 |
| Andrew Luck | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Darrius Heyward-Bey | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 5 | 6 | 140 | 2 |
| Reggie Wayne | 6 | 9 | 65 | 0 |
| Coby Fleener | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Robert Hughes | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Darrius Heyward-Bey | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| Trent Richardson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
7.28%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.8%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.86
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.63