Closing spread
SEA -3
Total
49
Model margin
+1.3est.
IND perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.042EPA / play+0.060
- 43.8%Success rate44.6%
- +0.053EPA / dropback+0.055
- +0.026EPA / rush+0.065
- 10.1%Explosive rate9.8%
- +4.08CPOE-2.41
- 37.3%Third-down rate41.9%
- 69.7%Red-zone TD rate60.3%
- 2.12Points / drive2.35
- 1.3%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 4–3 since 1999
SEA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51 points. IND are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 18/23 | 254 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Carson | 16 | 91 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Dee Eskridge | 2 | 22 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Rashaad Penny | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Freddie Swain | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lockett | 4 | 5 | 100 | 2 |
| DK Metcalf | 4 | 5 | 60 | 1 |
| Will Dissly | 3 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Chris Carson | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 2 | 2 | 20 | 1 |
| Dee Eskridge | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Freddie Swain | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 25/38 | 251 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 17 | 56 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 9 | 34 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | 4 | 23 | 5.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 6 | 7 | 60 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 6 | 8 | 48 | 0 |
| Zach Pascal | 4 | 5 | 43 | 2 |
| Michael Pittman | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Mike Strachan | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Parris Campbell | 1 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
7.18%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.6%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.41
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.30