2021 · Week 1

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

28·16

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Carson Wentz

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

SEA -3

Total

49

Model margin

+1.3est.

IND perspective

Push chance

7.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapColts
  • +0.042EPA / play+0.060
  • 43.8%Success rate44.6%
  • +0.053EPA / dropback+0.055
  • +0.026EPA / rush+0.065
  • 10.1%Explosive rate9.8%
  • +4.08CPOE-2.41
  • 37.3%Third-down rate41.9%
  • 69.7%Red-zone TD rate60.3%
  • 2.12Points / drive2.35
  • 1.3%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 4–3 since 1999

SEA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51 points. IND are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15IND @ SEA16–18SEA
2017 · W4IND @ SEA18–46SEA
2013 · W5SEA @ IND28–34IND
2009 · W4SEA @ IND17–34IND
2005 · W16IND @ SEA13–28SEA
2000 · W7IND @ SEA37–24IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–IND
INDQ1 15:001467Field goal0–3
SEAQ1 5:41986Touchdown7–3
INDQ1 1:263-4Punt7–3
SEAQ2 14:50761Touchdown14–3
INDQ2 11:22768Touchdown14–10
SEAQ2 7:04422Punt14–10
INDQ2 5:1149Punt14–10
SEAQ2 3:00788Touchdown21–10
INDQ2 0:4149Turnover on downs21–10
SEAQ3 15:00521Punt21–10
INDQ3 12:1937Punt21–10
SEAQ3 11:0657Punt21–10
INDQ3 7:563-8Punt21–10
SEAQ3 6:1624Turnover21–10
INDQ3 5:37524Turnover21–10
SEAQ3 3:27519Punt21–10
INDQ3 1:221454Turnover on downs21–10
SEAQ4 9:56773Touchdown28–10
INDQ4 6:411272Touchdown28–16
SEAQ4 2:0830Punt28–16
INDQ4 1:40638End of half28–16

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson18/2325440

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Carson16915.70
Dee Eskridge22211.00
Russell Wilson591.80
Rashaad Penny284.00
Freddie Swain155.00
DeeJay Dallas155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Lockett451002
DK Metcalf45601
Will Dissly33370
Chris Carson33260
Gerald Everett22201
Dee Eskridge1160
DeeJay Dallas1150
Freddie Swain0100

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz25/3825120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor17563.30
Nyheim Hines9343.80
Carson Wentz4235.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jonathan Taylor67600
Nyheim Hines68480
Zach Pascal45432
Michael Pittman34290
Mike Strachan22260
Parris Campbell13240
Jack Doyle34210
Mo Alie-Cox0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

7.18%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.6%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.41
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.30