Closing spread
IND -5.5
Total
44
Model margin
-2.7est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.123EPA / play-0.051
- 45.8%Success rate40.0%
- +0.249EPA / dropback-0.026
- -0.069EPA / rush-0.089
- 9.0%Explosive rate6.6%
- 46.8%Third-down rate40.9%
- 62.8%Red-zone TD rate52.9%
- 2.04Points / drive1.33
- 2.5%Turnover rate3.4%
- +0.005EPA / play allowed+0.074
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 4–3 since 1999
SEA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51 points. SEA are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | IND–SEA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 87 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| SEA | Q1 11:05 | 7 | 54 | Missed field goal | 7–0 |
| IND | Q1 7:19 | 15 | 75 | Field goal | 10–0 |
| SEA | Q2 14:12 | 7 | 72 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| IND | Q2 10:03 | 6 | 57 | Touchdown | 17–7 |
| SEA | Q2 6:54 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 17–7 |
| IND | Q2 5:13 | 2 | 10 | Turnover | 17–7 |
| SEA | Q2 4:24 | 6 | 34 | Touchdown | 17–14 |
| IND | Q2 1:56 | 9 | 50 | Field goal | 20–14 |
| SEA | Q2 0:23 | 2 | 31 | Field goal | 20–17 |
| SEA | Q3 15:00 | 1 | -2 | Turnover | 20–17 |
| IND | Q3 14:39 | 11 | 76 | Touchdown | 27–17 |
| SEA | Q3 8:33 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 27–17 |
| IND | Q3 5:35 | 9 | 76 | Touchdown | 34–17 |
| SEA | Q3 0:12 | 3 | 10 | Punt | 34–17 |
| IND | Q4 14:09 | 6 | 38 | Field goal | 37–17 |
| SEA | Q4 10:40 | 14 | 76 | Touchdown | 37–24 |
| IND | Q4 5:12 | 0 | 0 | Turnover | 37–24 |
| SEA | Q4 5:07 | 2 | -6 | Turnover | 37–24 |
| IND | Q4 4:31 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 37–24 |
| SEA | Q4 2:44 | 4 | 24 | Turnover | 37–24 |
| IND | Q4 1:51 | 4 | 27 | End of half | 37–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 20/30 | 281 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 38 | 219 | 5.8 | 3 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Harrison | 7 | 13 | 134 | 0 |
| Ken Dilger | 6 | 6 | 93 | 1 |
| Terrence Wilkins | 5 | 9 | 32 | 0 |
| Jerome Pathon | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Edgerrin James | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Huard | 19/26 | 226 | 3 | 1 |
| Jon Kitna | 5/6 | 57 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Watters | 8 | 24 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Brock Huard | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Shaun Alexander | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Dawkins | 6 | 7 | 118 | 0 |
| Darrell Jackson | 6 | 7 | 66 | 1 |
| Ricky Watters | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| James Williams | 2 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Itula Mili | 4 | 7 | 21 | 1 |
| Karsten Bailey | 2 | 4 | 11 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
1.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
41.8%
Expected total
47.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.47
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.82
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.72