2025 · Week 15

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Philip Rivers

16·18

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Sam Darnold

Lumen Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 51°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

SEA -13.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+8.6est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapSeahawks
  • +0.083EPA / play+0.036
  • 46.6%Success rate46.6%
  • +0.104EPA / dropback+0.137
  • +0.052EPA / rush-0.076
  • 8.1%Explosive rate10.7%
  • +0.62CPOE+4.54
  • 43.0%Third-down rate40.9%
  • 71.1%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
  • 2.74Points / drive2.22
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 4–3 since 1999

SEA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51 points. SEA are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2021 · W1SEA @ IND28–16SEA
2017 · W4IND @ SEA18–46SEA
2013 · W5SEA @ IND28–34IND
2009 · W4SEA @ IND17–34IND
2005 · W16IND @ SEA13–28SEA
2000 · W7IND @ SEA37–24IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–SEA
INDQ1 15:00827Punt0–0
SEAQ1 11:0037Punt0–0
INDQ1 8:571041Field goal3–0
SEAQ1 3:40534Field goal3–3
INDQ1 0:5035Punt3–3
SEAQ2 14:4740Punt3–3
INDQ2 12:52621Field goal6–3
SEAQ2 8:263-5Punt6–3
INDQ2 5:491058Touchdown13–3
SEAQ2 1:33744Field goal13–6
SEAQ3 15:001043Field goal13–9
INDQ3 9:4936Punt13–9
SEAQ3 8:05519Punt13–9
INDQ3 5:44517Punt13–9
SEAQ3 2:34766Field goal13–12
INDQ4 13:24819Punt13–12
SEAQ4 8:091082Field goal13–15
INDQ4 2:27626Field goal16–15
SEAQ4 0:47325Field goal16–18
INDQ4 0:1810Turnover16–18
SEAQ4 0:0400End of half16–18

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Philip Rivers18/2712011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor25873.50
Ameer Abdullah4153.80
Philip Rivers100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ameer Abdullah55320
Michael Pittman35260
Tyler Warren36190
Alec Pierce11160
Jonathan Taylor34140
Josh Downs35131

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold22/3627100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Zach Charbonnet8313.90
Kenneth Walker III9171.90
Sam Darnold451.30
Rashid Shaheed1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jaxon Smith-Njigba791130
Rashid Shaheed57740
Cooper Kupp57460
AJ Barner36270
Eric Saubert1190
Kenneth Walker III1120
Brady Russell0100
Zach Charbonnet0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.57.0%3.2%5.0%3.5%3.4%2.8%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

3.42%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

71.3%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.14
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.78
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+8.63