Closing spread
SEA -13.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+8.6est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.083EPA / play+0.036
- 46.6%Success rate46.6%
- +0.104EPA / dropback+0.137
- +0.052EPA / rush-0.076
- 8.1%Explosive rate10.7%
- +0.62CPOE+4.54
- 43.0%Third-down rate40.9%
- 71.1%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
- 2.74Points / drive2.22
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 4–3 since 1999
SEA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51 points. SEA are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 18/27 | 120 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 25 | 87 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Philip Rivers | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ameer Abdullah | 5 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 3 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Tyler Warren | 3 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| Alec Pierce | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 3 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Josh Downs | 3 | 5 | 13 | 1 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 22/36 | 271 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Charbonnet | 8 | 31 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 9 | 17 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 7 | 9 | 113 | 0 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 5 | 7 | 74 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 5 | 7 | 46 | 0 |
| AJ Barner | 3 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Eric Saubert | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Brady Russell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
3.42%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
71.3%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.14
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+3.78
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+8.63