Closing spread
DAL -2.5
Total
36.5
Model margin
+9.9est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.072EPA / play+0.011
- 45.5%Success rate42.5%
- +0.143EPA / dropback-0.026
- -0.024EPA / rush+0.053
- 9.8%Explosive rate10.6%
- +3.73CPOE+0.26
- 49.3%Third-down rate39.0%
- 66.8%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
- 2.18Points / drive1.59
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 48.9 points. JAX are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 16/33 | 246 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Jones | 17 | 72 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Marion Barber | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Leftwich | 23/34 | 237 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 21 | 74 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Byron Leftwich | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 1 |
| LaBrandon Toefield | 3 | -5 | -1.7 | 0 |
| Matt Jones | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
1.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
74.3%
Expected total
46.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.91
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+6.47
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+9.95