Closing spread
DAL -2.5
Total
36.5
Model margin
+9.9est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.072EPA / play+0.011
- 45.5%Success rate42.5%
- +0.143EPA / dropback-0.026
- -0.024EPA / rush+0.053
- 9.8%Explosive rate10.6%
- +3.73CPOE+0.26
- 49.3%Third-down rate39.0%
- 66.8%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
- 2.18Points / drive1.59
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 48.9 points. JAX are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DAL–JAX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 22 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q1 12:03 | 8 | 70 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| JAX | Q1 8:06 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–0 |
| DAL | Q1 7:38 | 5 | 43 | Field goal | 10–0 |
| JAX | Q1 5:35 | 5 | -10 | Punt | 10–0 |
| DAL | Q1 2:42 | 3 | 12 | Punt | 10–0 |
| JAX | Q1 1:10 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 10–0 |
| DAL | Q2 14:43 | 4 | 2 | Punt | 10–0 |
| JAX | Q2 13:38 | 10 | 58 | Field goal | 10–3 |
| DAL | Q2 8:48 | 6 | 13 | Punt | 10–3 |
| JAX | Q2 5:37 | 5 | 26 | Turnover | 10–3 |
| DAL | Q2 3:17 | 5 | 18 | Turnover | 10–3 |
| JAX | Q2 1:33 | 4 | 32 | Touchdown | 10–10 |
| DAL | Q2 0:07 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–10 |
| DAL | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 8 | Punt | 10–10 |
| JAX | Q3 13:03 | 9 | 43 | Missed field goal | 10–10 |
| DAL | Q3 7:05 | 11 | 58 | Missed field goal | 10–10 |
| JAX | Q3 1:25 | 11 | 74 | Touchdown | 10–17 |
| DAL | Q4 11:27 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 10–17 |
| JAX | Q4 10:55 | 4 | 18 | Punt | 10–17 |
| DAL | Q4 7:58 | 4 | 21 | Turnover | 10–17 |
| JAX | Q4 5:54 | 5 | 40 | Touchdown | 10–24 |
| DAL | Q4 3:13 | 4 | 84 | Touchdown | 17–24 |
| JAX | Q4 1:54 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 17–24 |
| DAL | Q4 0:51 | 3 | -5 | Turnover | 17–24 |
| JAX | Q4 0:14 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 16/33 | 246 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Jones | 17 | 72 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Marion Barber | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Leftwich | 23/34 | 237 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 21 | 74 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Byron Leftwich | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 1 |
| LaBrandon Toefield | 3 | -5 | -1.7 | 0 |
| Matt Jones | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
1.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
74.3%
Expected total
46.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.91
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+6.47
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+9.95