2010 · Week 8

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB David Garrard

35·17

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Jon Kitna

Cowboys Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -6.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+3.5est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapCowboys
  • +0.019EPA / play-0.002
  • 44.9%Success rate43.2%
  • +0.010EPA / dropback+0.048
  • +0.030EPA / rush-0.085
  • 10.6%Explosive rate9.1%
  • +1.85CPOE+2.25
  • 39.5%Third-down rate40.4%
  • 63.8%Red-zone TD rate65.7%
  • 1.86Points / drive1.67
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 48.9 points. DAL are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W15DAL @ JAX34–40JAX
2018 · W6JAX @ DAL7–40DAL
2014 · W10DAL @ JAX31–17DAL
2006 · W1DAL @ JAX17–24JAX
2002 · W12JAX @ DAL19–21DAL
2000 · W9JAX @ DAL23–17JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–DAL
DALQ1 15:00839Field goal0–3
JAXQ1 10:46568Touchdown7–3
DALQ1 7:50437Turnover7–3
JAXQ1 5:421046Turnover7–3
DALQ1 0:02965Turnover7–3
JAXQ2 11:36477Touchdown14–3
DALQ2 9:43824Punt14–3
JAXQ2 5:4658Punt14–3
DALQ2 2:201262Turnover on downs14–3
JAXQ2 0:0510End of half14–3
JAXQ3 15:00683Touchdown21–3
DALQ3 12:14415Turnover21–3
JAXQ3 10:56533Touchdown28–3
DALQ3 9:0138Punt28–3
JAXQ3 7:03623Punt28–3
DALQ3 2:5731Punt28–3
JAXQ3 1:4432Punt28–3
DALQ3 0:10984Touchdown28–10
JAXQ4 12:29736Punt28–10
DALQ4 7:5227Turnover28–10
JAXQ4 7:1737Touchdown35–10
DALQ4 5:501374Touchdown35–17
JAXQ4 2:2934Punt35–17
DALQ4 0:1900End of half35–17

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
David Garrard17/2126040

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Jones-Drew271355.00
Mike Thomas199.00
Deji Karim430.80
David Garrard221.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Sims-Walker8101531
Marcedes Lewis23512
Mike Thomas44411
Maurice Jones-Drew23130

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jon Kitna34/4937914

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Felix Jones8222.80
Marion Barber9161.81
Jon Kitna5122.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Miles Austin7121170
Jason Witten1012971
Dez Bryant79840
Tashard Choice44270
Roy Williams13210
Sam Hurd24190
Felix Jones34140
Martellus Bennett0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

4.83%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.5%

Expected total

47.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.10
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+3.51