Closing spread
DAL -6.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+3.5est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.019EPA / play-0.002
- 44.9%Success rate43.2%
- +0.010EPA / dropback+0.048
- +0.030EPA / rush-0.085
- 10.6%Explosive rate9.1%
- +1.85CPOE+2.25
- 39.5%Third-down rate40.4%
- 63.8%Red-zone TD rate65.7%
- 1.86Points / drive1.67
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 48.9 points. DAL are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 17/21 | 260 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 27 | 135 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Deji Karim | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
| David Garrard | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Sims-Walker | 8 | 10 | 153 | 1 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 2 | 3 | 51 | 2 |
| Mike Thomas | 4 | 4 | 41 | 1 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 34/49 | 379 | 1 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Felix Jones | 8 | 22 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Marion Barber | 9 | 16 | 1.8 | 1 |
| Jon Kitna | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Austin | 7 | 12 | 117 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 10 | 12 | 97 | 1 |
| Dez Bryant | 7 | 9 | 84 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 4 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Roy Williams | 1 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Sam Hurd | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Felix Jones | 3 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
4.83%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.5%
Expected total
47.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.10
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.51